Yankees Trade Target: Starting Pitcher Jake Odorizzi

Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi makes a lot of sense as a trade target for the New York Yankees as they approach the August 1st trade deadline.

With the Tampa Bay Rays sitting in last place in the American League East, they are rumored to be shopping a number of their starting pitchers in the lead up to the 2016 trade deadline. It has been previously reported that the Yankees were one of several clubs interested in Tampa Bay starter Matt Moore.

The 27-year-old Moore was once one of the most exciting young arms in the game, but has had his career derailed by injuries. After missing the majority of the 2014 and 2015 campaigns, Moore has struggled to return to pre-surgery form this year, posting a 4.54 ERA in 103 innings pitched. The former All Star has tantalizing upside, but is far from a sure thing going forward.

If the Yankees are going to trade for one of Tampa Bay’s starters, it may make more sense for them to acquire Jake Odorizzi, who is also rumored to be available. The 26-year-old righthander is in his third full season in the majors, and has established himself as a solid mid-rotation option. He’s the dependable sedan to Moore’s flashy but high-maintenance classic car.

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In 474 career innings, Odorizzi has compiled a 3.89 ERA and 3.87 FIP. His primary weapons are a low-90’s fastball and a mid-80’s splitter. He will also mix in a slider, cutter, curve, and sinker. Odorizzi has tinkered with his repertoire throughout his career, but has really come into his own with his use of the splitter starting in 2014.

It was recently reported that the Yankees were one of many teams looking to add starting pitching at the deadline this year. Last winter, general manager Brian Cashman made it known that his priority is young arms that he can control long term. No member of the Yankees current rotation is controlled beyond 2017.

Odorizzi is only 26 years old and won’t be a free agent until after the 2019 season. He has a 4.33 ERA in 99.2 innings of work so far, and is on pace to be above two fWAR for the third consecutive season. We saw last offseason how expensive mid-rotation arms have gotten, and the price is much higher for a pitcher as young as Odorizzi.

A good comparable might be the Michael Pineda for Jesus Montero swap prior to the 2012 season. The Yankees sent their top hitting prospect to the Mariners for a more established but controllable starting pitcher. Pineda wasn’t an ace, but was seen as a solid number two. Odorizzi’s ceiling may be slightly lower, although his 2015 campaign is similar to Pineda’s 2011.

Aaron Judge or Gary Sanchez are the current Yankees version of Jesus Montero. Montero had been successful in Triple-A and gotten his first taste of the big leagues in 2011. The Yankees could also be motivated to move top prospect Jorge Mateo given his recent altercation with team executives, but the suspension also likely lowers his trade value.

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A trade for Odorizzi would solidify the Yankees rotation in both the short and long term. They have far more position player talent than pitching depth on the far, while the Rays are in the opposite situation. A trade could end up benefiting both sides.