Orioles vs. Yankees prediction and odds for Tuesday, July 4 (Can Yanks stay hot?)

The New York Yankees may be undervalued at home against the Baltimore Orioles on July 4.

New York Yankees starting pitcher Clarke Schmidt (36) pitches.
New York Yankees starting pitcher Clarke Schmidt (36) pitches. / Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Yankees came back from a 3-0 deficit on Monday night to beat the Baltimore Orioles, thanks to a three-run home run from Harrison Bader in the bottom of the eighth inning. 

Bader has had a flair for the dramatic during his time in pinstripes, and he and the Yankees are hoping to take another game from Baltimore to inch closer to second place in the AL East. 

Clarke Schmidt (3-6, 4.37 ERA) gets the ball on Independence Day for New York. He takes on Kyle Gibson (8-5, 4.66 ERA), who had a month of June to forget, posting a 6.84 ERA in five starts. 

Let’s dive into the odds and my best bet for Tuesday afternoon’s contest: 

Orioles vs. Yankees odds, run line and total

Orioles vs. Yankees prediction and pick

The Yankees have not fared well in Schmidt’s starts this season, going just 5-12, but the young right-hander has really pitched well since mid-May. 

Over his last nine starts, Schmidt has just a 3.64 ERA, but the Yankees’ struggling offense hasn’t helped him out. The team is 2-7 in those nine games. I am still concerned about Schmidt’s 1.42 WHIP this season, but he may be the better starter in this matchup. 

Gibson’s ERA has gone from 3.82 on May 25 after he shut out the Yankees in seven innings to 4.66 in just six starts. 

The veteran right-hander did have success against New York earlier this season, but he comes into this game in a world of trouble, lasting just 7.2 innings over his last two starts. 

In his last two starts:

  • 16 hits
  • 4 walks
  • 11 earned runs

New York’s offense hasn’t been great, but the Yankees are the team to bet at such a short price at home. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.