The last time Domingo Germán took the mound for the New York Yankees, he made history, pitching the 24th perfect game in Major League Baseball history.
Now, he looks to follow up that performance against the team directly ahead of the Yankees in the American League East standings, the Baltimore Orioles, on Monday.
Baltimore has really turned things around after a few rebuilding seasons, looking like a legitimate playoff contender with a ton of young talent on the roster.
The O’s are four games up on the Yankees heading into this series, and they’ll send Tyler Wells (6-4, 3.21 ERA) to the mound to face Germán (5-5, 4.54 ERA) on Monday.
Let’s break down the odds and my best bet for this AL East rivalry matchup:
Orioles vs. Yankees odds, run line and total
Orioles vs. Yankees prediction and pick
Germán isn’t going to pitch a perfect game again, but his last outing added just another layer to what was a wild month of June for the Yankees right-hander.
In his first two starts of the month against the Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox, Germán allowed just one run in each of them, going 12.2 innings and leading the Yankees to two wins.
Not bad, right?
Well, then the wheels fell off in his second start of the month against Boston. He allowed seven runs on seven hits in just two innings of work on June 16. To make matters worse, Germán followed that up with a clunker against the Seattle Mariners, giving up 10 runs (eight earned) in 3.1 innings.
Naturally, in his next start he throws a perfect game. The guy is all over the place.
So, how should bettors proceed when betting on Germán?
Prior to his two blow up outings, the Yankees right-hander had lowered his ERA to 3.49 on the season and had allowed fewer than four runs in eight of his 12 starts.
Bettors can’t just discount those poor outings, but I do think there is value in taking the UNDER in this game, especially since Wells has been pitching well for Baltimore.
Since May 29, Wells has made six starts, allowing two or fewer earned runs in each of them – posting a 2.78 ERA in the process. The Yankees, as we all know, have struggled mightily without Aaron Judge in the lineup, making this a favorable matchup for Wells on Monday.
Plus, both of these teams rank in the top 10 in MLB in bullpen ERA (New York is No. 1, Baltimore is No. 7) this season. Even if these starters aren’t great, the bullpens should be able to keep this game in check.
I’ll gladly take the UNDER, which is 16-7-1 in Yankees games since Judge was injured back on June 3.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.