Yankees: What’s changed with Masahiro Tanaka?

Masahiro Tanaka is coming off a dominant outing against the Mariners on Tuesday. The 30-year old right-hander allowed just three hits and one walk in seven shutout innings. Tanaka has pitched well for the Yankees since the middle of August, going 3-1, with a 2.30 ERA in five outings.

But, here’s the real question. How is this happening? The Yankees right-hander entered his August 11 start against the Blue Jays with a 7-6 record and an ERA of 4.93. What’s changed since then?

The answer? He’s finally found his splitter.

Tanaka’s spent a good portion of the 2019 season working his splitter. Ordinarily, it’s been the best pitch of his career. From the start of the 2014 season—his first in the majors—thru the end of 2018, opposing batters were hitting just .196 against the pitch. He threw 3,450 splitters during that span, which was by far the most in Major League Baseball.

Most Splitters Thrown: 2014-2018 Seasons

1. Masahiro Tanaka 3,450
2. Jake Odorizzi 3,333
3. Jorge De La Rosa 3,188
4. Kevin Gausman 3,013
5. Anibal Sanchez 1,950

2019 saw the numbers on his splitter take a drastic turn. Opposing batters were hitting .294 against the pitch—nearly 100 points higher than his career average. For some reason, Tanaka couldn’t get the grip quite right. Because of that, he’s had to rely on other pitches to get the job done. Tanaka’s throwing his slider a career-high 36.3 percent of the time, while also throwing his four-seamer a career-high 27.4 percent of the time.

By comparison, Tanaka threw his four-seamer 14.0 percent of the time back in 2017. He doesn’t have the velocity on his fastball that a James Paxton or Domingo German does. His four-seamer is averaging just 91.5 miles-per-hour this season. He needs pitch placement in order to be effective.

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However, it looks like things are changing. In his last five outings, batters are hitting just .195 against Tanaka’s splitter. The Mariners’ offense was just 2-for-11 against the pitch on Tuesday, which translates to a .182 batting average.

Tanaka’s continued success will be key for New York’s postseason run. Their bullpen needs rest, which means starters have to go deep into games. Since the All-Star break, Yankees’ starting pitchers have the fourth-worst ERA in the majors (entering play Wednesday) at 5.89.

Worst Starters’ ERA in MLB

Since All-Star Break–(Entering play Wednesday)

1. Orioles 6.53, 17-26 Record
2. Rockies 6.25, 15-29 Record
3. Tigers 5.92, 11-33 Record
4. Yankees 5.89, 30-16 Record
5. Pirates 5.87, 12-31 Record

I know what you’re thinking. The Yankees still have a winning record during that span. Yes, they do. In fact, their 30 victories are the most in the majors since the mid-summer classic. However, they’ve been defeating teams like the Orioles, Blue Jays, and Rockies.

In the postseason, they’ll be facing the Twins, who lead the majors in home runs. They’ll be facing the Astros, the club featuring a three-headed monster in Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke. These teams will not bow down to a rotation with a second-half ERA approaching six. The Yankees need Tanaka to be the ace of old in order to clinch World Series title number 28.