The Yankees made no secret that their most important off-season goal was to add two starting pitchers. When Cashman signed CC Sabathia, it left just one open spot. And shifted the power back to Brian.
The Yankees off-season is just about over. It still seems as exciting as the day they got Giancarlo Stanton, but most of the big gifts have been unwrapped. Of course this being the Yankees and The Off-season of Stunning Trades, things can change quickly.
I’ve been a victim of the abruptly shifting Yankees lineup. I wrote an article not long ago looking at Brian Cashman’s different options for starting pitchers. In it, I advocated acquiring two starters. But between the time I wrote it and the time it took to get published, Cashman had signed Sabathia.
That made it seem I wanted the Yanks to begin the season with six starters, which makes no sense. Instead, the signing of CC serves as the mid-level pitcher I mentioned as one of the options. Sabathia has better than mid-level ability, but one year for $10 million is the definition of a mid-level contract for a starter.
So, it is possible that before you read this piece, the Yankees will have salary-dumped Ellsbury, signed Yu Darvish and traded for Manny Machado. It’s not likely, but neither was Stanton.
No, what is much more likely is that Cashman will complete his holiday shopping by adding one more starter. CC’s $10 million makes signing Yu Darvish or working out a swap with Arizona for Grienke’s even larger contract much less likely. Please see the previous paragraph.
Guerr, not Gor; Big Difference
Fortunately, Cashman is a guerrilla fighter and knows when to move through the darkness of the MLB trade wars. He seemingly sensed that Arizona found a trade partner in Texas, or at least is willing to wait. As much as he and Yankees nation would love to trade Jacoby Ellsbury, waiting might prove a disastrous siren song.
So, he quickly pivoted to Sabathia. And by doing so, he took back control of the trade market.
If Cash had decided to do nothing in hopes of pulling off a dream scenario—Greinke in, Ellsbury out, and room under the cap—he might have seen the market for starters shrink.
For instance, CC might have told teams he was going to pick an offer by Christmas. This from George King of the NY Post, back on December 13th:
"Sabathia, a free agent, has spoken to the Angels and Tuesday he and his representatives met with the Blue Jays.Sabathia said often during the regular season his first choice was to remain with the Yankees. However, as Christmas approaches, the Yankees haven’t struck a deal with Sabathia, who went 14-5 with a 3.69 ERA in 27 starts last season and is 237-146 in his career."
If the Yankees had not signed him, a team such as the Angels might have, and there would be one less option on the market.
Playing Dominoes
Then, if he failed to get Greinke, Cash would still need two pitchers. And players are getting signed or traded in dribs and drabs. By the time the Greinke/Ellsbury pursuit was over, there would likely have been fewer pitchers to choose from.
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Also, the Yankees would have too little money for a top starter, if Darvish can indeed command $25 million a year. Before CC, the Yanks had about $27 million to play with but are committed to keeping a portion for mid-season acquisitions.
Finally, it would have given the teams with pitchers to trade the upper hand. Once they knew Cash might want two pitchers but has to have one, they could wait for Cash to crack, and hand over an untouchable.
But signing CC flips that script.
There Can Be Only One
Now the Yankees only want one pitcher, and don’t have to have him. Jordan Montgomery was a top-ten rookie of the year, and everyone knows it, even opposing clubs. And the CC signing leaves Cash enough money to sign another pitcher to a similar one-year deal.
Now it is teams such as Arizona, Tampa, and Pittsburgh that are competing to see if any of them will get even one great young Yankees’ prospect.
Before the signing, the Pirates were stalled in talks with the Yankees as they asked for Gleyber Torres. Once CC was signed, Cash was able to pivot back to Arizona and Patrick Corbin. That has a way of unstalling talks.
That pits the two National League teams against each other. Corbin is a free agent in one year, the Pirates’ Gerrit Cole in two, meaning Corbin costs less, but the return is slighter. The Yankees are probably better off trading for a pitcher with more than one year of control rather than seeing their vaunted system bled off for shortsighted returns.
But only at the right Yankees cost. Two years is better but not for Gleyber Torres, especially when they could probably pay mostly cash for Corbin.
That means the choice for Pittsburgh is no longer which of the Yankees top prospects they should hold out for, but can they still trade a starter who is leaving in two years for Clint Frazier and a minor league pitcher?
Their Just Deserts
The same works for Arizona: Whatever they wanted before has been re-calibrated. Of course one of the things they want is money to sign J.D. Martinez. Signing CC helps on that front, as well.
Had Cash signed a higher priced pitcher, he would have to use only prospects to get his fifth starter. That would leave teams like the Pirates and Rays in the driver’s seat. Now, Cash has both money and prospects to play with.
If Arizona is willing to take a lesser prospect to get New York to take both Corbin’s and Brandon Drury’s salaries, Cashman can do that. If Arizona suddenly decides it wants another prospect but will pay the salaries, Brian can still make that happen.
Rumors are that the Pirates have seen the light and have re-engaged with the Yanks, as well. We won’t know if that is true until a move has been made; that’s just Brian Cashman in ninja trade mode.
But you can bet they’ve come off of their ridiculous demand for Gleyber Torres. CC did that.
Like some bewildered readers at the end of my last article, I can only see the Yankees acquiring one more starter. That, however, could still be anyone from Darvish (least likely), to Greinke, to Cole or Corbin.
The real point is that once again Brian Cashman has gotten out in front of the market and put the Yankees in position to win their next trade. And build a world championship club.
Huge Sigh
Before I close this update, I would be remiss if I did not make one last case for why the Yankees should add another starter. I know many of you want the Yankees to give Chance Adams and Jordan Montgomery opportunities to start. You would like the Cash-man to stand pat.
But the reason the 2017 Yankees outlasted other clubs with better records was organizational depth. And we all know that it takes at least seven starters to get through a season.
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So, even if it means trading Adams, the Yankees have a better chance of fielding a championship club every night if their five-six-seven is Corbin-Montgomery-Justus Sheffield than Montgomery-Sheffield-Domingo German. That’s hoping to win, not planning to.
Brian Cashman has formed most of the 2018 Yankees, with but one more big move to go. More than likely, we’ll all awake from a silent night to a stunning acquisition. But unless he moves Ellsbury, we have probably seen his biggest moves, and the team looks largely set.
And ready to give the gift that keeps on giving: Wins. Lots and lots of wins. Merry Christmas, Yankees fans.