Yankees playoffs: Judgment day arrives in the ALCS

The Yankees find themselves in mid-October still vying for a title. And what was once a fun house ride for the Astros is turning into a house of horrors.

Yankees playoffs have been bereft of success lately. That’s historically very un-Yankees like. But since 2009, the team has been in decline, the playoffs serving as a sad reminder that only fine wines age well.

October, however, is a time for reflection and planning, whether you are in the playoffs or not. The Yankees spent their recent Halloweens scared of the choices they had made, and fearful of finding any good young talent to take over.

Today, though, is a much better day in Yankees universe for planning and reflection. And it’s not too early to give thanks.

So just now, before game four and during this magical Yankees moment, is time for a look at some of the decisions that got them here, and the decisions being made based on postseason performances.

And of course to revel in where the Yankees are today, and where they might go in just a few days.

The Ghosts of Yankees Past

There is more to Yankees mystique than championship banners and fan-boy posts.

Woven into the fabric of the organization, and reinforced by Yankees manager Joe Girardi, GM Brian Cashman, and the players they put into that locker room, is a certain work ethic; an expectation that an athlete must prepare his body to be successful, not just show up and play.

And that takes work and effort. Take Starlin Castro, for example. When he came over from the Cubs, he was a formerly prolific hitter who looked like he had taken his talents as high as he ever would. Instead of progressing, he seemed to be regressing.

His body reflected his body of work. When he showed up for his first training camp, he looked pudgy, like he still had his baby fat. I think many of us predicted he would either not look like that in a year or two, or not be in a Yankees uniform.

This is Now

Watch him today when he bats in game four. You will see a slimmer, more athletic man. His hitting has rebounded and he ended as the only Yankees regular with at least a .300 average. There might be a correlation between his revitilization and his new Yankees work ethic.

That’s not an accident, and it’s not league standard. The Red Sox only had a problem with Pablo Sandoval when his girth finally affected his play and by then it was too late.

And when was the last time you saw a Yankees rookie come up with Dominic Smith’s belly? The Baby Bombers all seem to arrive in phenomenal shape. That’s how you prepare to play your best for when you play well past game 162.

Castro is likely still fresh because of his offseason workout changes, inspired and perhaps ordered by the Yankees, along with his stint on the DL.

Pitchers are in a bit of a different category but even with this group the results have been delightful.

Still Not Exactly Slim and Trim

While it didn’t seem to help Michael Pineda, at least he gave it the old Yankees try and improved his weight and shape during is now-completely over tenure.

CC Sabathia’s efforts, however, are paying off handsomely.

It takes a lot to provide the Big Man the opportunity to go and bathe in the now beautiful glow of his setting, but brightly shining, sun. Twenty or thirty extra pounds might very well be the difference between letting his knee brace stabilize him, and having his weight overwhelm all other efforts.

And he couldn’t go out and lose it this year when the team started to improve. That ‘s why he and the Yankees made it a priority even when it seemed like CC could carry the extra weight. CC’s success now is part of his work over the last four or five years.

The body feeds the mind. The Yankees have stressed that in the past and it is carrying them into a bright future. And a magical present. But that’s not the only friendly spirit haunting the Yankees house.

Todd Frazier

Cash and the Yankees wanted to win this year, but they were not going to go all in. Instead of adding a bat the caliber of JD Martinez, they opted for the more affordable Todd Frazier. Yes, they wanted him because he plays third, but they could have gotten both men if they thought they would contend for the World Series.

It was a risky move, a stop gap rather than an impact play. His average was only at .203 although he still hit for power. The hope was he could shore up the bag, allowing Headley to cover first, and occasionally run into a home run; a move right out of the disastrous Chris Carter playbook.

That move paid off big time in game three, however. Home runs are hard to come by in the playoffs, even for the best of players. Frazier, one of the two or three real emotional leaders on this young Yankees team, made that trade a success when he hit his three run, game-winning homer.

On a Clear Day, You can see New Jersey

That gives him one home run in his nine post season games. That’s not much, but it’s just about par based on how much production he was projected to provide. If he hits even one more, the Yankees will have come out way ahead on his acquisition.

Especially when it is unexpected production from fringe players that can make the difference in a playoff series.

That’s what you hope for when you sign a player like him, that his lightning will strike at the right time. Frazier’s timely home run electrified the crowd and his teammates. And sent shock waves through the Astros.

Win or lose, the off-season is coming soon. The actions here in this postseason, though, have already begun to shape this fast coming future. And the team now has a clearer idea of who looks like a Yankees immortal, and who is just part of the walking dead.

Too Much of a Good Thing

There is a sad fact of life that Yankees fans are going to have to embrace at some point between now and July of 2018: The team has too many exceptional infielders.

And while that is a good problem to have, it still must be resolved. Next year, Girardi and Cashman are going to look out and see at least five players for four spots: Greg Bird, Starlin Castro, Didi Gregorius, Gleyber Torres, and Miguel Andujar.

Some of you, gentle readers, might suggest keeping all five, rotating akin to a four-man outfield. That makes sense in many ways. Except it is bad baseball business to have a glut of great players in one position, while other positions need reinforcements.

And since teams can never have enough pitching, someone will be traded for a pitcher. But who to trade?

As Long as they Don’t Become Red Sox

It won’t be the young Yankees. That would make little long-term physical or fiscal sense. That means it will have to be either Didi or Starlin.

Coming into the season, I was convinced it would be Starlin because of his power potential. By the end of the season, Didi’s leadership and career high in home runs convinced me that he was destined to wear pinstripes for a long, long time.

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His home runs in both the Wild Card game and, more notably, game five of the ALDS cemented that thinking.

But look at where we are now, before game four. Starlin continues to contribute to the offense on a remarkably consistent basis. He batted .273/.304/.364 in the ALDS with a double, RBI, and three runs scored while collecting eight total bases.

Here in the ALCS, he is batting .273/.273/.273, and no that is not a mistake. Starlin has scored once and accounted for three total bases.

Didi has been more feast or famine. He did end the ALDS with a slash of .235/.435/.588 with two home runs, but almost all of that came in the last game. Coming in to that contest, the talk was about how Didi needed to produce more.

We Just Changed the D to a C

That talk is back at this point in the ALCS. Gregorius is slashing his own repetitive line of .167/.167/.167.

So, which player is having the better postseason, and who should the Yankees keep? Didi won the deciding ALDS game almost by himself, but has been an easy out in almost every other game. Starlin has been in the middle of most of the Yankees rallies but has not had any impactful home runs.

Who is more valuable? As I wrote a few days ago, I am not making any more predictions during the 2017 postseason, because I suck at them so very, very much. I’ll leave this one to the readers and the comments section.

Some futures are just too easy to read, though.

CC Sabathia

There were many days back in 2014 and 2015 when Yankees universe lamented not only CC being on those teams, but that he was signed through 2017. Now that same galactic body hopes he will rise once more in 2018.

He just completed his second consecutive season with a sub-four ERA. That makes him the only Yankees starter to accomplish this feat over the last two years. And his clubhouse presence and coach-like status with the pitching staff make him a valuable veteran.

CC is not a definite to return. But the fact that this postseason has finished turning him from a definite no to a, yes at the right price, speaks to the resilience of the man, and the redemptive nature of the sport. And life.

Todd Frazier

Frazier is a great success story. He grew up seeing his Yankees heroes perform in the postseason, and being inspired by them. Now, he has become that hero.

Children in Jersey and all five boroughs will forever carry treasured memories of Todd Frazier’s uplifting and series turning home run.

But that, and whatever other magic Todd can conjure this postseason, is all the memories they are likely to live off of. Frazier is just not good enough to warrant one of those rare and valuable 2018 New York Yankees roster spots. He is more likely to leave the Yankees and drift towards retirement.

However, it is then that his Yankees legacy will rise from the dead. Frazier was born to coach. And now that he has emerged as Girardi’s biggest supporter when he needed it most, Joe and the Yankees will probably be the first to give Todd a try. Look for him on Joe’s bench the spring after he retires.

Greg Bird

Bird has hatched into a full baby bomber in this postseason, his calm demeanor and penchant for home runs and extra base hits belying this as his first extended playoff experience.

And one thing is now crystal clear: As long as he is healthy, he will be manning the first base bag for the Yankees.

Little needs to be said about Matt Holliday and Chase Headley. Even with his hit last night, Headley has seen how little the Yankees think of him at the most important time of year, and the Yankees have seen how little he has produced.

Holliday will not be back and the only way Headley is back is if the Yankees are forced to keep him.

But it’s Hal Steinbrenner who should be scared of how much Joe Girardi has gained the upper hand during these playoffs for his pending contract talks.

Rising from his Playoff Grave

In the playoffs, heroes are born and villains created. It took a postseason bat flip to vault Jose Bautista from the top ten to baseball’s most hated player. And of course there is always the hope for redemption.

You all know Girardi’s playoff arc by now. But this is not the end of that story. No, Joe’s rainbow-like arc will lead him to an off-season pot of gold. Literally, if that’s what he wants.

Because Joe Girardi is no longer the bungling, hesitant manager who cost his team a chance to win the ALDS. Now he is the emotional shepherd of a young and over-performing team, the man who inspires his players to rally to his cause, and take on the world.

At least that’s how his agent will portray him. And all he’ll have to do is read the newspapers. In one week, Joe changed his conversation with Hal Steinbrenner from, “Well, Joe, here’s what we’re offering you.”, to, “Well, Joe, what will it take to get you to stay?”

That’s not just rising from the dead, it’s ascending to payday heaven.

So many implications and reflections from one postseason. But the most important thing, for Yankees players and fans alike, is to appreciate this magical and improbable now.

The Past, Present, and Future

The pitching in the first two games slightly favored the Astros. But thanks to the patience of Girardi, that changed last night, perhaps irrevocably.

Many people thought Tanaka would start game three, primarily because he has pitched better at home all year. Game three is pivotal and it would line Tanaka up to pitch game seven, if need be.

Instead, Girardi started Hiro on the road in game one. Tanaka responded with his third brilliant start in a row, but that was more of a hope than a sure thing.

But what was sure was that Tanaka would be lined up for game five. It would put Tanaka at home, on full rest, in the most important game of the year.

And now that vision is coming true.

It also puts Severino, the Yankees most talented pitcher, ready for game six, and CC, the Yankees most clutch pitcher, ready for game seven. But that is just a part of how the pitching might have turned in the Yankees favor.

A Two-Headed Monster

The Astros ended the season top-heavy with pitching; it’s a not uncommon scenario. Their two best pitchers—Verlander and Keuchel—are world beaters. The rest of the staff, however, is more scary to Astros’ fans.

Lance McCullers Jr. goes tonight. He was one of the best pitchers in the AL in the early going and a key reason Houston started hot. But he might also be the reason they lose this series, as Scott Lauber points out for ESPN:

McCullers was one of the best pitchers in the league through the season’s first three months, going 7-1 with a 2.69 ERA in 15 starts and earning an All-Star Game selection. But a back problem and arm fatigue limited him to six starts in the second half, as he posted an 8.23 ERA. Which version of McCullers will show up Tuesday evening at Yankee Stadium? The answer might just swing the series.

For those of you worried about Sonny Gray, he will enter the game as the heavy favorite.

And tomorrow, when Tanaka takes the mound, he will face off against Brad Peacock. The 29-year old had a breakout season, pitching to a 3.00 ERA in his 132 innings.

But he is the one who looks broken in the postseason. He gave up three runs in fewer than three innings against the Sox, probably due to arm fatigue.

Dreams turn Into Nightmares

Just as the Yankees past is fueling their present, the Astros is draining their best chances of success.

Houston needed Brad to take the mound 21 times this year, but his 132 innings this season are almost 100 more than he has thrown in the last two seasons combined (36.2). Now it looks like he is running on fumes.

It reminds me of the 2009 WS, when the Phillies pitching was so decimated they turned to an ancient Pedro Martinez for game two.

That means that the match-ups in games four and five greatly favor the Yankees pitchers…and the Yankees hitters. But they will still need to beat either Keuchel or Verlander eventually.

Some are suggesting Keuchel will start game five. While he might win that game, coming back on short rest feels more like a panic move. That might very well prove to be the worst decision of the playoffs.

The smart money is on beating Verlander in game seven. Justin will be 35 in a month and just threw 124 pitches in game two. He might run out of gas in the middle innings of his next start and open the door for the baby bombers.

Hopefully, Judge will be one of them.

Who Will Win the Costume Contest?

What a difference a change in venue makes. Were I to write this column before game three, it would have been titled: Jose Altuve is showing everyone what an MVP looks like.

Last night, Aaron Judge donned that same mask. With both his offense and defense, Judge showed what it can mean to have the biggest player in the game.

There was a hidden effect on the Astros, as well. It took Altuve and the Astros every ounce of their talent to score four runs in the first two games. Then they watched the Yankees hit two, three-run home runs. It seemed to rattle the Astros.

That is especially true because Judge hit one of the homers. Just the specter of the biggest man this side of Paul Bunyan starting to find his sweet swing seemed to spook the Stros.

BOO!

And they showed it. The Astros showed they felt every home run that left the park, and the ghosts of Yankees past. Like Cleveland before them, Houston committed uncharacteristic mistakes playing in front of Yankees fans, and at times looked lost.

That’s what Yankees mystique is all about. And at this time when the future and present meet, there is an additional lesson to be learned: The difference home field advantage can have. Think how different this postseason might be if the Yankees started and finished every series at home.

When this year is all over, no matter the outcome, these baby bombers need to remember it. They need to remember that if they had won two more games against the Red Sox, or four more overall, they would have earned their very real home field advantage.

And it’s that thought that should drive the team every day of next season, and beyond. They need to win every inning of every game, especially against Boston next year as they will return a strong contender in 2018.

Do that, and they might impose their will, and imbue a fear of Yankees mystique, from before the first pitch of their next postseason series.

Especially if future teams play as loose as this team, which seems hard to believe.