Yankees Offseason Trade Target: Sonny Gray

With the Oakland Athletics reportedly shopping Sonny Gray this winter, the New York Yankees should be all in on the 27-year-old ace.

According to Buster Olney of ESPN, the Oakland Athletics are “actively listening” on Sonny Gray after a disastrous season for the young righthander. Interestingly, Olney also tweeted on Thursday that the New York Yankees have switched their focus to acquiring pitching now that they have moved catcher Brian McCann to the Houston Astros. There definitely seems to be a match there, especially if Gray would come at a discount after struggling in 2016.

Gray’s sudden collapse this season seemingly came out of nowhere, which suggests that an injury may be to blame for his poor performance. After finishing third in the American League Cy Young voting in 2015, Gray saw his ERA balloon to 5.69 last year. His peripheral stats suggest Gray was the victim of some bad luck in 2016, but his 4.67 FIP is not all that encouraging.

According to FanGraphs’ data, there wasn’t a significant drop in velocity or difference in pitch selection between his 2015 and 2016 campaigns. He saw his strikeouts tick down slightly, his walks tick down, and a huge jump up in the percentage of hard hit balls he allowed this year, from 25.1% to 33.6%. Probably the biggest factor in his awful run prevention was his HR/9 nearly doubling from 0.74 in 2015 to 1.38 this season.

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For what it’s worth, the Steamer projection system does not see Gray returning to his previous dominance next season, estimating a very ordinary 3.97 ERA and 3.88 FIP in 197 innings of work. That would make him a solid number three starter, but certainly not the ace many might be expecting.

Gray did make two trips to the disabled list this year because of strained muscles in his pitching arm, so there is a possible explanation an acquiring team could point to for his struggles. He missed around two weeks in May with a strained right trapezius and most of the last two months of the season with a forearm strain.

The problem with acquiring Gray this winter is that Oakland has every right to value Gray as a true ace this winter because they have no real motivation to move him since he’s controlled through the next three seasons. The reason they are willing to listen now is because, with no real frontline starters on the free agent market, they have the luxury of naming a high price and waiting to see if teams meet it.

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Personally, I would like to see the Yankees make a big splash this sort and cash in a few of their prospect chips for a controllable star. That doesn’t mean empty out the farm, but sending three prospects from their top 10 plus some secondary pieces would leave them with plenty of elite young talent.

Maybe something along the lines of Jorge Mateo, Justus Sheffield, Albert Abreu, Rob Refsnyder, and Mason Williams? Submit your own trade proposals in the comments.