Yankees Fans: Most Important Takeaways from 2016 Arizona Fall League

The Yankees Next Superstar?

Probably the biggest story of the fall was 19-year-old shortstop Gleyber Torres, who was named the 2016 Arizona Fall League MVP on Saturday after batting .403/.513/.645 with three home runs and four stolen bases through 76 plate appearances in 18 games. It’s worth noting that he won the league’s batting title this year, becoming the first player under the age of 21 to do so.

Despite being the second-youngest player in the league, Torres looked completely dominant, fueling hopes that he might be able to force his way to the Bronx sooner than expected. The AFL is roughly equivalent to Double-A competition, where Torres is slated to begin the 2017 season.

Could Torres follow the path of Greg Bird, who won the 2014 AFL MVP award, began the next season with Double-A Trenton, and then force his way into the Yankees big league lineup by the second half of 2015? Torres is younger than Bird was, but he looks like his ceiling as a hitter might be even higher.

After just a few months in the organization, Torres took over the top spot on Baseball America’s 2017 New York Yankees Top 10 Prospects list (subscription required). On the offensive side, they note “his ability to hit for plus average and plus power” and “excellent pitch recognition skills.” For what it’s worth, BA’s Josh Norris writes he has a good chance to break into the big leagues before his 22nd birthday.

Defensively, he has all the tools to remain at shortstop, but also did well during his first game action at second base during the AFL and has the arm strength to eventually move to the hot corner if needed as well.

Kap and the Bird Man Finally Healthy

In his seventh and final start of the AFL season Wednesday, top pitching prospect James Kaprielian allowed just one hit over 4.1 innings of work, shutting out the Salt River Rafters in a 4-0 win. He threw 64 pitches, 40 of them for strikes while striking out four and walking one.

While a 2-3 record and 4.33 ERA may not be what many fans expected, Kaprielian was reasonably sharp this fall after missing the majority of the 2016 regular season to an elbow injury. There were one or two rough outings mixed in, but overall he looked like the same dominant guy who was mowing down hitters with High-A Tampa earlier in the year. I’m really excited to see what he can do over a full season next year.

Crucially, Kaprielian’s stuff looked completely undiminished by the long layoff, suggesting that he should be at full strength when spring training rolls around, following a normal offseason. The 22-year-old righty was sitting 95-97 with his fastball regularly during the AFL and commanding all of his four-pitch arsenal effectively.

Things went a little less well for projected 2017 Yankees starting first baseman Greg Bird, who is still rehabbing from the shoulder injury that kept him sidelined for 2016. While he has made progress, he’s still not cleared to play the field because he can’t make throws at full strength yet.

Bird also has a ways to go in building strength back in his shoulder. After hitting four doubles in his first three AFL games, Bird had just two extra-base hits the rest of the way, finishing with a .215/.346/.354 in 77 plate appearances. His excellent plate discipline means he wasn’t a complete disaster on offense, but he clearly wasn’t driving the ball like he has in the past.

What does that mean for 2017? Not necessarily anything. The Yankees will have to see how he’s progressing when March rolls around, but fans should assume that Bird is a lock to land the starting job next spring. Shoulder injuries can seriously sap the power of sluggers, and he might benefit from a few months in the minor leagues to begin the season.

Tate Regaining His Form?

During the 2016 General Managers’ meetings, Yankees GM Brian Cashman revealed that enigmatic pitching prospect Dillon Tate, the centerpiece of the Carlos Beltran deal at the August 1st trade deadline, would return to the starting rotation in 2017 after working as a reliever in the last two months of the season and during the Arizona Fall League.

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The team clearly bought low on the fourth overall selection in the 2015 draft after fluctuating velocity resulted in some ugly outings in the Sally League in the first half of this season. He was often working in the high-80s with the Hickory Crawdads, far from the 100 mph heater that enticed scouts in his college days.

The 22-year-old saw his velocity gradually return after coming over to his new organization. It is admittedly still a little inconsistent, but he was mostly within the 93-97 range with his fastball over his six AFL appearances.

When speaking to Baseball America’s Bill Mitchell (subscription required) in October, Tate attributed his early-season struggles to an issue with his pitching mechanics:

Just some mechanical adjustments that needed to be made, actually a really small one. Over time, the more I tried to fix it, I just wasn’t doing what was natural for me. I think that probably tied into it.

His improved stuff is beginning to translate to success on the mound, as Tate struck out 11 batters in 9.1 innings of work in Arizona while allowing just one walk. After getting roughed up in his first two outings of the fall, he finished the year with 6.1 scoreless frames. He was eventually shut down after reacing his innings limit for the season.

Next: Three Risky Starters the Yankees Should Target

The Yankees will need to continue to take things slow with Tate, but he’s one of the few minor league arms with a legitimate chance to be a front-of-the-rotation starter down the line. He’s expected to begin next season with High-A Tampa.