Yankees Should Stay Far Away from These Three Free Agents

The New York Yankees should avoid these three big-name free agents in their search to upgrade the 2017 roster this winter.

A rebuilding team needs to be especially careful when adding veteran free agents, especially when they are operating on a budget, as the New York Yankees clearly are this winter. The team seems likely to have just enough payroll room to an add an arm or two via free agency this winter and maybe a bat if we are lucky.

The 2017 club could be better than many fans think if certain things break the right way, but choosing the right veteran reinforcements during the offseason could be one of the key determining factors in whether or not the Yankees are contenders this year.

There are some interesting buy-low opportunities available on the market, but also many mediocre talents who are going to be vastly overpaid because of a fluky 2016 performance.

The most egregious example of this is Ivan Nova, who is ranked 10th on MLB Trade Rumors list of the 2016-2017 Top 50 Free Agents and is expected to sign in the neighborhood of four years and $52 million this winter.

After missing the majority of the 2014 season to Tommy John and being terrible for most of 2015-2016 with the Yankees, Nova is set to cash in with one of the biggest deals of any free agent because of 11 strong starts with Pittsburgh. The only reason he’s not one of the top three guys New York should avoid is because I know Brian Cashman is far too smart to fall for that nonsense.

These other three free agents have been suggested as potential fits for the Yankees by other analysts, but seem like potential clunkers who could turn back into pumpkins after signing.

Mark Trumbo

Yahoo’s Jeff Passan recently called the market for Trumbo “bustling” when reporting that the slugger is expected to reject a $17.2 million qualifying offer from the Baltimore Orioles. After leading the American League in home runs it isn’t surprising that many clubs would be interested in Trumbo. Power is always in high demand and Trumbo has a strong track record of providing it.

If you look past that one skill, however, things are pretty ugly. It’s important to remember that the Orioles acquired Trumbo basically for nothing last offseason. Prior to this year, Trumbo had managed to accumulate a grand total of 0.5 WAR over his previous two seasons, meaning he was roughly replacement level despite clubbing a combined 36 homers.

Even during his big breakout campaign this season, Baseball-Reference estimates Trumbo was worth just 1.6 wins above replacement. When you consider that an average regular contributes two wins annually to his team, Trumbo’s limitations are apparent.

If Trumbo’s power isn’t at its absolute peak, he has little left to offer. He’s always been a horrible defender wherever you play him. Even as a designated hitter, his poor baserunning and subpar on-base skill sap his overall value.

MLBTR expects a four year $60 million contract for Trumbo this winter, even with a qualifying offer attached. There are plenty of better veteran hitters available who could be had on modest one or two year deals and wouldn’t require the Yankees to surrender a draft pick to sign. Carlos Beltran, Steve Pearce, and Luis Valbuena all jump to mind. And if New York is going to drop that kind of cash on an aging slugger, why not go all in on Edwin Encarnacion?

Jason Hammel

The Chicago Cubs made the very classy move of declining Jason Hammel’s $12 million 2017 option, which seemed like a lock to many analysts, allowing him to hit the free-agent market as one of the better available arms, rather than pick it up and shop him this winter. Cubs PBOp Theo Epstein explained:

The intent was never to exercise the option and then trade Jason, so we will not consider that path. Instead, Jason will have the opportunity to enter free agency coming off an outstanding season and the ability to choose his next club.

Hammel turned in his second straight solid season for Chicago, pitching to a 3.83 ERA in 166.2 IP (30 GS), although his 4.48 FIP suggests that some luck played a role in his success. He had a 3.74 ERA and 3.68 FIP in 170.2 IP the previous year.

The veteran right-hander is not a bad pitcher by many means, but he’s probably best suited for the senior circuit at this point in his career. His last two stints in the American League, with Oakland in the second half of 2014 and 2013 in Baltimore, were pretty ugly.

If the Yankees were to give him the three-year $42 million that MLBTR predicts, they would be getting his age 34-through-36 seasons. As a flyball pitcher, Hammel is already a bad fit for Yankee Stadium, but if he begins to decline at all (and his slipping peripherals this year indicate that could be happening already) things could get ugly sooner rather than later.

At this point, I’d probably rather see what some of the Yankees young depth arms like Chad Green and Luis Cessa could do with a full season in the rotation rather than make a big commitment to Hammel. There seems to be a good chance the results wouldn’t be all that different.