Projecting the New York Yankees 2018 Rotation

With the New York Yankees three most effective starting pitchers set to depart after the 2017 season, the future of the team’s rotation is up in the air.

While there has been a lot of discussion among New York Yankees fans about the club’s thin 2017 rotation, things get even more uncertain after that, as the only three established starters on the roster, Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, and CC Sabathia, are all set to hit free agency after next season (assuming Tanaka opts out of his current contract).

The Yankees are expected to pursue pitching help this winter, but a blockbuster for a big name like Chris Sale or Sonny Gray seems like a long shot. Their most likely path is to bring a unheralded young arm or two to compete with Luis Cessa, Chad Green, Luis Severino, and Bryan Mitchell for the two currently open jobs.

The long term outlook for the rotation depends in part on who from that group establishes themselves as viable starters next season. Severino has the highest ceiling, while Cessa had the most success in 2016, so lets call them the front-runners for the moment. I’m sure all four will get an opportunity at some point given the amount of pitching typically needed in a 162 game season.

More from Yankees Minor Leagues

• Yankees’ Jasson Dominguez ranks in tough spot on Arizona Fall League Top Prospects list
• Yankees protect only 1 top prospect from 2022 Rule 5 Draft, take major risk
• Scouts ripping Yankees’ Jasson Dominguez’s AFL performance need to get real
• Ranking Yankees prospects heading to Arizona Fall League
• Yankees 2022 first-round pick Spencer Jones ended season on a rampage

If we jump ahead to 2018, a number of the Yankees top pitching prospects may be ready to take over the jobs of those departing veterans. James Kaprielian, who was just named the organization’s fifth best talent by Baseball America (subscription required) even after missing the majority of this year with an elbow injury.

I wouldn’t be surprising to see him reach the majors at some point this year (MLB Pipleline lists his ETA as 2017). By 2018, I’m predicting he’s ready to take over as the ace of the staff. He’s looked that good in his professional career thus far.

Behind him I expect to see another polished arm who should shoot through the system, 22-year-old righty Chance Adams, who has an outside chance at making at least one or two Top 100 lists next spring after an insanely successful first season as a starter this year. Like Kaprielian, Adams could force his way into a few starts in the second half, and become a fixture in the rotation to begin next season.

Despite his disastrous 2016, Luis Severino seems like a good bet to establish himself as a solid mid-rotation option. He has the winter and spring to fine-tune his changeup, and could maybe even use a minor league stint to improve it next season. By 2018, it’s realistic that he could be the Yankees third starter given the two plus pitches he already has.

Next: Top Five Arms Under 25 the Yankees Should Target

Rounding out the cast, I’ll predict Jordan Montgomery and Justus Sheffield. Green and Cessa were fine this year, but I would bet against them holding off the more talented options in New York’s system. Mitchell is probably a reliever, as are Dillon Tate and maybe even Domingo Acevedo. Dietrich Enns is a wild card because of his awesome Triple-A numbers this year, but ultimately he probably doesn’t have the stuff to be more than a long relief guy.