Who Should the Yankees Pursue: Aroldis Chapman or Kenley Jansen?

The New York Yankees are rumored to be interested in free agent closers Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen this winter. Which one is the better option?

Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball recently reported that he is hearing the New York Yankees will pursue one of the top two free agent closers this winter, Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen. The idea that the Yankees would look to bring Chapman back to the Bronx has come up a lot lately, but this is the first time I’ve heard them connected to Jansen by a reputable source.

Honestly it’s hard to go wrong with either guy as far as I’m concerned. Both are in their prime and incredibly dominant. The only relief pitcher to rack up more rWAR than Aroldis Chapman (13.4) since his big league debut in 2010 is Craig Kimbrel (14.3), while Jansen ranks sixth on that list with 11.8 WAR. Each guy has a long track record of being the best of the best.

This year, both guys turned in vintage performances. Chapman pitched to a 1.55 ERA and 1.42 FIP in 58 IP while striking out 14 batters per nine. Notably, he tied his own major league record earlier in the season with the Yankees with a 105.1 mph fastball, so it is probably safe to say his stuff has not yet begun to decline.

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Yes, relievers tend to have a short shelf life, but Chapman especially feels like the Mariano Rivera type of guy who transcends that. He is that good. Unfortunately the domestic violence issue will always be in the back of my mind when I’m watching him, so personally I’d prefer to see the team go after Jansen instead.

Jansen is basically like 5% worse than Chapman across the board, with a 1.83 ERA and 1.44 FIP in 68.2 IP and 13.6 K/9. To be clear though, he’s still awesome and a shutdown closer. He is also five months older though and likely to come with a qualifying offer attached, which could be a big red flag for the Yankees front office, who have held onto their draft picks pretty tightly in recent years. Of course, with the upcoming CBA, it isn’t clear that the QO system will be extant by that point.

With the contracts of Mark Teixeira, Carlos Beltran, and Andrew Miller off the books, the team has plenty of money to offer either reliever a record contract and still cut payroll from 2016. Both pitchers seem poised to top Jonathan Papelbon‘s five year $61 contract that still stands as the largest guarantee given to any reliever. I would predict something like five years $75 million for Papelbon and five years $65 for Jansen.

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From a performance standpoint, Chapman seems like an easy call here. He’s consistently outperformed Jansen’s also-excellent numbers the last few seasons. The lack of a QO also helps, not to mention that the Yankees are already familiar with Chapman’s medicals, his personality, etc. They know for a fact there will be no problems adjusting to New York or the American League.

Still, as I said, Jansen seems like a fine alternative who has the added bonus of being easier to root for as a person.