Yankees Blueprint for a 2017 World Series Championship

While we are all caught up in the heady days of a September playoff push, it is not too early to look ahead to next year. Here are the additions that will put the Yankees in the 2017 World Series.

No matter how this wild September ride comes out, the Yankees are now closer to the start of spring training for 2017 than the one for 2016. It is time to start planning and begin to play GM. The good news is that the Yankees have a very simple path for a return to dominance in 2017.

The Yankees current payroll is approximately $228,000,000. Roughly 40 million dollars comes off the books this year, mainly due to Teixeira and Beltran. That puts them at roughly 188 million but there is a catch.

Here I must speculate because Brian Cashman does not return my texts. I think the Yankees will try to get under the cap this year. Again, another speculation: the luxury tax cap will be raised to 210 million. That gives the Yankees roughly $18,000,000 to spend. That won’t get it done.

Waving Goodbye to McCann and Gardner

Yet one more speculation: the Yankees will trade one or two players this off-season. They have certainly motivated Brian McCann to waive his no-trade clause and Gary Sanchez seems like he has an excellent chance of getting the starting catchers job next year. Brian McCann does not play like, and is not paid as, a back-up; he is playing his last year in pinstripes. 

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They will probably also try to trade Brett Gardner but working out a trade will be challenging. The Yankees are currently unwilling to pay any money towards the contracts of departing players. It’s what held up the McCann trade in July and August.

But the Yankees have seen the effects of letting the baby Yankees play and seem to be converts. The future is now and Gardy is then. So, if the Yankees are motivated to continue to get better by getting younger, Gardner will be traded.

If the Braves—McCann’s first choice—hold firm, they will only pick up half of McCann’s salary, providing 9 million in extra spending money. The only way they can trade Gardy will be to do the same for his new team, saving the Yankees 6 million more. That could give them roughly 33 million to spend while staying under the cap.

We All Have Needs

In 2017, the Yankees will need starting pitching, consistent power in the middle of the order, and a late-inning reliever. The farm seems to have already provided young power bats, with Clint Frazier still on the come. And both starting pitching and power relief arms look like they will arrive at some point in 2017. That, however, is way to many ifs. 

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The team needs one more type of player: a leader on the offensive side of the ball. When the season ends, all the veterans will be pitchers. Tex, McCann and A-Rod will all be gone. Gardy is the one who delivers the emotional speeches these days but he might not be on the team next year. The young power hitters—Bird, Sanchez and Judge—need someone to show them how to prepare over a full season, how to ride out a cold streak in the majors, and how to perform in the playoffs.

But the Yankees must be circumspect about which players to consider. They need time to see which prospects work out. Once Cashman sees the positions likely to be filled by inexpensive, homegrown talent, he will fill in with free agents. Also, a lot more money comes off the books next year. Finally, the free agent class of 2018 looks to be historic and the Yankees have been positioning themselves to be prime spenders.

So, they will not be pursuing anyone who is looking for a long-term deal, meaning no one under 33. For both the batter and starting pitchers, the Yankees will look for players in their mid-thirties who they can sign to contracts ranging from 1-3 years. The pitchers must have been successful in the A.L.. The batter must be willing to play almost exclusively DH or, at most, some back-up first base.

Pitching Wins Championships

With those factors in mind, here is what the Yankees will do this off-season. If they do, we might have to budget for playoff tickets next year.

1. Starting Pitchers first. The Yankees have three veteran pitchers for next year. They are, along with their (ERA/Whip) for 2016: Masahiro Tanaka (3.04/1.07), Michael Pineda (5.07/1.36) and CC Sabathia (4.27/1.36). This assumes that Tanaka either does not opt out or is resigned by the Yankees. Eovaldi is out for next year and will probably be released.

Therefore, they will sign either Rich Hill (1.80/.958), Colby Lewis (3.31/1.05), or Hisashi Iwakuma (3.96/1.29), in that order. Any one of these would immediately become the second best pitcher on the team. All have been successful in the AL. All three of these pitchers are 35 or older, meaning they can only expect 1-3 year deals. And they should be affordable: Iwakuma makes the most at 12 million and any of the three should be able to be signed at that price.

The one big drawback of signing older pitchers is that they might not make 32 starts. Of the three, only Iwakuma seems likely to do that and he was not signed by the Angels this year because he failed their physical. But making 32 starts is more of the exception than the rule. Tanaka and Pineda might do it this year, but did we really want Pineda to start all those games?

The Yankees will not mind if a pitcher misses some time. They want their young kids to have major-league tryouts without having to go into a season counting on them. The luck factor they hope for is that their best pitchers will be available for September and the post season.

Two Arms are Better Than One

The Yanks, however, need two front-line pitchers and will probably not be able to afford both at market price. Here is where their creativity and farm system will really help them in 2017. They will still want most of the same factors to apply here. They will not want to trade for anybody who has years left on his contract because the Yankees need flexibility to let their system develop.

Plus, a young pitcher would cost too many prospects. And they want proven players. They have plenty of their own young arms to worry about. They also need to find a trading partner who has a front-line pitcher they are willing to trade.

The Yankees need to find a team that is going into full rebuild mode.

Therefore, this off-season, they will trade for Marco Estrada (3.68/1.14). 2016 will be the last time this Blue Jays team makes sweet music together. This year, almost half of their team becomes free agents, including two of the three bats in the middle of their order: Joey Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion (more on these two later). Between this year and next, seemingly almost every member of the team becomes a free agent. Time to rebuild.

The Jays plan is simple. They stayed in the race because they could win the World Series this year. If they don’t, they will make qualifying offers to most of their free agents and get compensatory draft picks for those who are signed. This means the team is looking at a three or four year window for a return to prominence.

A Common Sense Trade

Trading Marco Estrada makes perfect sense for the Jays. He only has one more year remaining and the Jays will not need him any time soon. No need to pay a pitcher 11.5 million for a team that will fight with the Rays for last place.

His age works against with the Jays but for him with the Yankees. At 33, he is too old for the Jays to wait three or four years for, when the Jays project to be serious contenders again. And the Yanks would get a pitcher still in his prime for at least that one year.

Trading for Marco Estrada makes perfect sense for the Yankees. He meets all the criteria. Plus, he is one year away from free agency. If he continues to pitch as he has, he will become an unrestricted free agent (UFA) the following off-season. That is perfect for the Yankees as they will have a lot more money coming off the books next year. They will also get a first-hand look at him as well as get the first crack to re-sign him.

The Prospect of a Trade

They will have to trade prospects and my guess is they opt to trade a few good ones. Why? Because the better the prospects, the more of the contract the Jays will pay. Estrada’s cap hit for next year is 11.5 million. The Yankees will want to pay no more than half. As they say, you gotta give to get.

The Jays will want a starting pitcher. They can have either Domingo Acevedo, Justus Sheffield, Dillon Tate, Dietrich Enns, Chad Green, or Luis Cessa. If they want, they can have both Green and Cessa. Chance Adams is off the table because Marco Estrada for one year is not worth him. Again, luck plays a role here for the Yankees. Neither Luis Severino nor James Kaprelian are attractive right now, which is good because they still have the highest ceilings.

A pitcher alone will not sway the Jays. So, they can have Luis Torrens, Jake Cave, Kyle Higashioka, Tyler Wade, or Dustin Fowler. Torrens makes the most sense. He has the highest upside and is already playing well. He is still a couple of years away, which puts him on the club just in time to get a two-year apprenticeship under Russell Martin. They might want two of these guys and the Yankees might agree.

Don’t be surprised if the Jays want one blue chipper and three nobodies. If that happens, we probably say goodbye to either Gleyber Torres or Jorge Mateo. The Yankees would absolutely do that if it means getting Estrada, who would become their number two pitcher, for 5.75 million next year.

The Yankees Crave Power

2. Relief Pitcher. This one is real easy and real short: the Yankees will resign Aroldis Chapman. He has both things the Yankees crave: dominating ability and real star power.

3. Power Bat and Veteran Presence. For the first three months of the season, Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez occupied two of the three middle-of-the-order spots. Their respective slash lines (Avg/OBP/Slug) are (.200/.247/.351) and (.200/.287/.343). That was painful and surprising. I was shocked to see both their averages above .190. Combined they hit 21 home runs.

The Yankees do have power bats both in the line-up and on the farm. But none of the baby Yankees has played a full season, Judge is still more of a no than a maybe, and Frazier might need a full year at AAA.

Therefore, the Yankees will sign one of the following three, in no particular order: Edwin Encarnacion (.267/.358/.546) with 39 home runs so far, Jose Bautista (.228/.350/.442) with 18 home runs, or Carlos Beltran (.298/.340/.518) with 27 homers. Bautista might seem underwhelming but he is having an off-year. Leaving this year out, he averaged 37.5 homers the last two years and 35 homers the last five.

Age Discrimination

All three players will be at least 34 next year and ready to play DH. My favorite is Encarnacion if he wants to sign a three-year deal, which I think he will. It is hard to imagine a team going five years at his age. I know very little about his leadership but not hearing anything negative is more important than hearing positive stories. He already primarily plays DH and is the back-up first baseman. He will be in high demand, particularly by the Red Sux.

Joey Bats will also be in demand but his down year will affect his price. That is partly what makes him so attractive to the Yankees. He might want to sign a one-year deal in order to re-establish his market value for a future three-year deal. That will provide a lot of motivation. And a lot of home runs.

I am not excited about his locker room presence, but A-Rod played on the team for 12 years. Players respect production and Bautista will either provide a lot of that next year or prove 2016 was the beginning of the end. I believe it will be the former.

That brings us to Carlos Beltran. Yes, he will be 40 next year but he is proving age has not slowed his mighty bat. He balked at being the DH this year but father time teaches us all. As DH, he should stay healthy all year. And even if he does not equal his totals from this year, he is already a well-respected player and invaluable teacher in the clubhouse.

The Depths of the Yankees

These moves will provide tremendous benefits to the entire organization.

First, the top three pitchers will all be good to very good. Tanaka, Estrada and Iwakuma will be much better that the top three this year (Tanaka, Pineda, Eovaldi). It will also generate real competition in spring training for the last two spots.

This will keep the depth in the minors strong for the times replacement pitchers are needed, and they are always needed. You want the sixth, seventh, eighth and ninth guys up to be Green, Severino, Cessa, and Adams. This gives guys like Sheffield, Acevedo and Tate time to develop.

Teams don’t win championships, organizations do. Adding two front-line pitchers creates phenomenal depth both for the rotation and the bullpen.

The added power bat will add stability throughout the season. It will also allow the Yankees to see who can really play at the big league level without chancing too many wins. Judge, Frazier, Tyler Wade, Dustin Fowler and Jake Cave will all probably get playing time in the Bronx next year. It would be nice to give them tryouts without having to count on them to hit or the Yankees will lose. Consistent offense from the middle of the order covers a lot of sins.

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The Yankees should be able to accomplish all of these moves in the off-season. However, if they do not trade Gardy, I expect them to go for the starters and power bats first. If they do, they will put a team on the field in 2017 capable of fulfilling the mission statement: win the World Series.

Now, does anyone know Brian Cashman’s cell phone number?