Yankees are an Extreme Longshot for Jose Fernandez Despite Speculation

While it’s fun to imagine Miami Marlins ace Jose Fernandez in pinstripes, there is very little reason to think the New York Yankees will be able to acquire him this winter.

On Sunday, John Harper of the New York Daily News proposed that the New York Yankees could target 2013 National League Rookie of the Year Jose Fernandez this winter to solidify their uncertain rotation picture.

A move like that would presumably catapult the Yankees back to no-doubt contender status next year. Pairing Fernandez with Masahiro Tanaka at the top of their rotation would give New York the best one-two punch in all of baseball and arguably make them the favorites in the American League, depending on how confident one is in their young lineup.

Fans should get too excited at the idea, however, as there is absolutely no real reason to think the Miami Marlins will actually move their ace this winter. Harper cites an unnamed rival executive who claims, “They’re going to trade him. It’s just a matter of when.”

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Unless a team is willing to vastly overpay, this winter seems like an unlikely time for the Fish to trade Fernandez. Before a dreadful month of August where they went 10-18 after losing star slugger Giancarlo Stanton and several others, the Marlins looked like a team on the rise and were one of the favorites for an NL Wild Card spot.

With Fernandez, Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, Derek Dietrich, Adam Conley, and Wei-Yin Chen, Miami have a talented nucleus of players under team control for the foreseeable future that could easily make another run next season.

Admittedly, Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria is known for his periodic fire-sales, but there has been no solid indication that another one is on its way. If anything, Miami has a stronger case for being a 2017 contender than the Yankees at the moment.

Harper believes it would take four top prospects for New York to land Fernandez, and speculates that Clint Frazier, one of their top shortstops (Gleyber Torres or Jorge Mateo), Justus Sheffield, and one other lesser piece could get the deal done.

Honestly, that does seem like a fair price for both sides, but it may be a trade both teams would say no to given where they each currently stand. New York has committed to building from within, so it may not make sense for them to put all of their eggs in one basket like this.

Pitchers are inherently riskier to build around than position players, and Fernandez already has one TJ surgery under his belt at just 24 years old. Not only that, but he’s a relatively short term piece with just two years of team control remaining.

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On the other side, the Marlins are just entering their window of contention with many of their core just entering their prime years. It makes more sense for them to make a push now than it does for the Yankees.