Bomber Bites With Jumping Joe–The Case for Not Signing a Free Agent Pitcher

Most baseball insiders believe that the Yankees are going to go after a big name starting pitcher in free agency this off-season. The Big Three of Jon Lester, Max Scherzer and James Shields is certainly enticing and the best crop of free agent pitchers in years.  However, do the Yankees actually need to sign another long term contract with a pitcher?  Their history with big free agent starting pitchers is a mixed bag to say the least.  They have had some great successes such as Mike Mussina, David Wells and Masahiro Tanaka, but have also endured some colossal failures such as Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright and A.J. Burnett.  There have also been a few in the middle, such as CC Sabathia who gave the Yankees several good years in the beginning but now seems like his best days are far behind him. 

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Each of Lester, Scherzer and Shields have been fantastic pitchers for the last few years but that past performance is no guarantee of future success.  In addition all of them come with some form of baggage.  Lester was one of the Red Sox implicated in the “Chicken and Beer Fiasco” at the end of the 2011 season that led to the firing of Terry Francona when Boston collapsed that September and missed the playoffs.  Scherzer has been known for his inability to work deep into games, citing only one career complete game.  Despite the Royals making the World Series, Shields has pitched poorly in the postseason and has significant wear and tear on his arm having thrown at least 200 innings every season since 2007.

There are also the financial drawbacks.  The bidding for each the three is expected to start in the $20+ million a year stage and work its way up.  It is highly likely that Scherzer will sign a contract that will be second only to Clayton Kershaw in terms of dollars.  Lester does not figure to be far behind.  Shields is a few years older than the other two and is expected to receive a shorter deal but could approach the other in terms of average yearly salary.  Shields and Scherzer will both almost certainly be given qualifying offers as well, meaning that the Yankees would forfeit their first round draft pick if they sign either of the two.  The A’s cannot give Lester a qualifying offer because they acquired him at midseason.

Mandatory Credit: Chad R. MacDonald.

The Yankees also don’t really need a starting pitcher going into next season.  While the starting staff was crippled by injuries in 2014, with 4/5 of the opening day rotation landing on the DL, the starting staff as a whole pitched effectively.  Right now the rotation looks like Tanaka, Michael Pineda, Sabathia Shane Greene, and David Phelps.  The Yankees then have Chase Whitley waiting in the wings in case of injury.  Ivan Nova will be due back around the All Star break.  They also have a few promising players likely to start the season at AAA who could make the jump at some point next season in Manny Banuelos and Luis Severino.  If the Bombers are worried about depth and want to hedge their bets on having such a young and largely unproven rotation, they can resign Brandon McCarthy who pitched some of the best ball of his career in the second half of the season after he was traded to the Yankees from Arizona.

The Yankees would be better in 2015 if they signed one of the top three pitchers but they might be worse in a year or three.  Signing free agent pitchers is a risky business and not one the Yankees have shown to be able to overly succeed at.  The biggest hole on the club is in an aging and under producing lineup.  That is where money needs to be spent, although there is no free agent hitter in the class of Lester, Scherzer or Shields.  However, if they save their money now and pass on the big long term pitcher contract, they might be able add some significant payroll via a trade for a hitter.

The bottom line for the Yankees to remember is that they don’t have to sign a starting pitcher for the sake of signing a starter.  They can bow out of the pursuit if the contract years or dollars spin out of control.  They are actually playing from a position of strength because even if they don’t sign a pitcher, they already of the makings of a solid staff.