Brian Cashman Bet on Regression and Won

The 2014 season will be remembered as Derek Jeter‘s last professional year as the team missed the playoffs and was otherwise mediocre. The fact that they hadn’t been mathematically eliminated until game 158 after losing 4/5 of the rotation for a long time period and receiving underwhelming performances from some free agent signings is pretty incredible. Yes, the addition of the 2nd Wild Card lowered the bar and superficially kept the Yankees relevant. Regardless, Joe Girardi deserves a lot of credit for keeping the games meaningful. A very important reason why they stayed alive is also attributable to players who weren’t even in the organization in March. Brian Cashman and the front office deserve a lot of credit for this.

Dave Cameron of Fangraphs took a look at how each Yankees’ mid-season acquisition performed pre-Yankees and post-Yankees. He uses WAR to measure the value they provided on the field. On the position player side– Chase Headley: 1.6 WAR in 307 pre-Yankee PA, 2.3 WAR in 203 PA with the Yankees. Martin Prado: 1.2 WAR in 436 pre-Yankee PA, 1.4 WAR in 137 PA with New York. Stephen Drew: 0.2 pre-Yankee WAR in 145 PA, -1.1 WAR in 136 PA after joining the Yankees. Chris Young: -0.6 WAR in 287 pre-Yankee PAs, 0.9 WAR in just 55 PA with New York. On the pitcher side– Brandon McCarthy: -0.2 WAR (using RA9 rather than FIP) in 110 pre-Yankee innings, 85 IP and 2.2 WAR with the Yankees. Chris Capuano: 32 pre-Yankee IP for -0.1 WAR, 0.2 WAR over 59 innings with the Yankees. Esmil Rogers: 21 pre-Yankee IP at -0.5 WAR, 23 IP and 0.3 WAR with the Yankees. Besides Stephen Drew, each of these acquisitions were a resounding success. They put up more WAR in an absolute sense and a rate (per PA) basis after coming to New York. Cameron wonders if the Yankees saw parts of these players’ games that could be altered to maximize their production (such as McCarthy throwing more cutters) or if Cashman just hoped for positive regression from players with a track record that exceeded their 2014 results to date. Either way, Cashman targeted good players having 3 or 4 tough months and bet on them reverting back to their former selves.

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The best part of all of the great production they got from the in-season acquisitions is that they didn’t have to surrender much value. Vidal Nuno, Yangervis Solarte, Kelly Johnson, and Peter O’Brien just aren’t guys that the team will regret dealing. The in-season acquisitions were a large part of why the Yankees will finish above .500. However, there is only so much improvement a team can make within a season. Cashman likely got close to the theoretical ceiling of that improvement without mortgaging the future, but it wasn’t enough to catapult the team into the playoffs due to the lackluster performances of some other players expected to carry the team. Cashman showed he can make shrewd upgrades around the edges of the roster by digging deeper into player skill sets and betting on positive regression. That all goes for naught if the core group of players gets hurt and/or doesn’t provide much value.