Yankees' risk vindicated after reported Trent Grisham qualifying offer decision

The New York Yankees made the type of bold qualifying offer decision last week that would've either left them holding an offseason roadblock or looking like soothsayers. As it turns out, they may have known exactly what they were doing (unless, of course, they were hoping Trent Grisham would return instead of Cody Bellinger).

Grisham represented the only player to whom the Yankees extended a one-year, $22 million olive branch that comes with draft pick compensation attached. Most players don't accept the poison pill. Then again, most players who are slapped with it will typically waltz right into a life-changing seven-year contract.

Grisham? He had the career year of his dreams in his final year in pinstripes, bashing 34 home runs — many of them clutch — and ranking seemingly just outside the top six Silver Slugger finalists in the American League outfield picture. He seemed as likely as he'd ever be to receive a multi-year offer, even with the lockout looming, but one with an AAV below the $22 million the Yankees were dangling. Add in the fact that surrendering a draft pick for Kyle Tucker is a no-brainer, but doing it for Grisham? Suddenly, you're stroking your chin a little bit.

Despite all those complicating factors that might've been pointing Grisham back to the Bronx, it seems the Yankees played this gamble correctly. According to MLB insider Jon Heyman, Grisham is expected to decline the qualifying offer after all.

Yankees outfielder Trent Grisham reportedly turns down qualifying offer

This means the Yankees can't be counted out on Cody Bellinger, their likely offseason top priority. If Grisham had accepted the Yankees' money, it would've gotten extremely complicated to fit Bellinger, Grisham and Judge's money in the outfield, all while sending Jasson Domínguez and/or Spencer Jones to the shadow realm (or other teams).

As it turns out, the silver lining might've been accurate all along. The Yankees weren't hedging their Bellinger bets. They were reading the market correctly, assessing that Grisham would prefer any variety of multi-year offer over just a single season of security in the Bronx. Now, who'll give it to him while surrendering a comp pick slotted just after the first round? That's anyone's guess. It makes more sense for a repeat tax offender to sign him and hand away a mere fourth-rounder anyhow.