Silver lining to Yankees' Trent Grisham decision makes the choice less baffling

On Thursday afternoon, the New York Yankees defied all previous indicators and presented outfielder Trent Grisham with the qualifying offer coming off a career year. That means, if Grisham so chooses, he can take the Yankees' $22 million for one year and end his free agency cycle early. The QO isn't exactly like the franchise tag, but it does make open-market shocking a lot more difficult; some mid-tier teams that might've had interest in a three-year Grisham deal might not anymore, now that they are required to surrender a draft pick to sign him.

There's also a good chance that $22 million is a higher AAV than he receives on any multi-year deal, with or without the offer. Most free agents who are extended the qualifying offer are no-brainers to turn it down; teams are merely looking to recoup draft pick compensation for their departures. Grisham? With the lockout looming and the market forecasted to be oddly dry, it's a genuine coin flip.

And so, now that we've puttered around long enough, it's time to look slightly on the bright side. There are a few dire indicators at work, sure. If Grisham accepts the offer, the Yankees are unlikely to pursue Cody Bellinger; they're not paying a fourth outfielder $22 million, and they're not using their developmental rookies as platoon players or backups. Tagging Grisham could mean the Yankees believe Bellinger will exit their price range (and, yes, they'd then risk losing both of them if someone hands Grish what he wants).

But ... on the flip side ... offering the QO to Grisham could be insurance. What if the Yankees offered it to him because they aren't scared at all that he'll return? They know the market better than we do. The only reasons to slap a QO on a player are if you really want him back, or you're really sure he's gone.

Are Yankees sure Trent Grisham will leave, hence the Qualifying Offer?

Grisham was also the Yankees' only qualifying offer candidate, meaning he's their only chance to redeem a draft pick if they do shop in the upper tier of the free agent pool. If you know the market and you can all but guarantee a player's departure, and also plan to sign one of the 13 QO players yourself - Michael King? Shota Imanaga? Kyle Tucker, very optimistically? - it's a handy way to make sure a fourth-round pick lands in your coffer after you've lost one. The Yankees are repeat tax offenders, so the pick won't be high ... but it'll still matter.

So, if you want to be aggrieved this morning, you can think about the scenario where Grisham opts in and hamstrings their budget (because you know the Yankees don't have the wherewithal to merely gulp, accept the $22 million, and continue shopping). But there's also the distinct possibility that the Yankees know exactly what they're doing (and what everyone else is doing), and plan to shop around the top of the market and swap draft picks when Grisham leaves. It's risky. We wouldn't have done it. But they might know more than we do.