Yankees qualifying offer decisions explained (and what it means for Cody Bellinger)

The New York Yankees have a wide range of offseason business to attend to on a moderate budget. How will they lure three or four new relievers to the Bronx, add shortstop depth, and create the type of chemistry and contact-hitting prowess the Blue Jays have built? Your guess is as good as mine, especially with the type of market they're about to enter. Typically, at this time of year, we'd have to wonder about any number of upper-tier free agents with the qualifying offer attached to them, wondering just how many draft picks the Yankees would be willing to sacrifice for their greatness. This year? Not positive they'll be flirting with a single one of them. Not sure they're going to offer any of their own guys the QO, either.

There are four star-level free agents who could be leaving the Yankees this winter, and three of them are eligible to receive the qualifying offer, attaching draft pick compensation to their potential departures. Cody Bellinger, who the Yankees would love to bring back, had the QO slapped on him by the Cubs back in 2024; he isn't eligible to receive one again, and would net the Yanks nothing if he left.

The other three? Devin Williams and Luke Weaver in the bullpen, and Trent Grisham coming off a career year. The Yankees have to make their decisions within five days of the end of the World Series (Dodgers in six?), and two of them are extremely obvious.

The Yankees won't risk $22.05 million one-year deals for Williams and Weaver on the oft chance that both find heftier multi-year offers and net them draft picks ... between the fourth and fifth rounds, which is where New York's compensatory picks will land thanks to their violation of the luxury tax threshold (congrats, here's a loose chiclet and some tape).

Grisham? That's a potentially different story.

Trent Grisham is Yankees' only difficult qualifying offer decision ahead of World Series deadline

Grisham's postseason might've answered the $22 million question for the Yankees, and based on the current tea leaves, they seem much more willing to welcome Bellinger back long-term than their center fielder with regressing defensive metrics coming off a 129 wRC+ out of seemingly nowhere.

But, after Grisham's impressive campaign and pre-playoff propensity for clutchness, you'd have to think there's still a three-year offer out there for him somewhere, right? What's the worst thing that could happen if you tie the QO to him? The rest of the league gets terrified, pre-lockout, and he returns to provide the Yankees some insurance against Jasson Dominguez/Spencer Jones failing to break out?

Grisham accepting the theoretical QO might mean the end of Bellinger in the Bronx, but it shouldn't. The Yankees should be unafraid to cover their bases, place the tag on Grisham, then negotiate with Bellinger, who won't be scaring off any suitors with the perilous threat of draft pick compensation, but will be entering a pre-lockout world where many mid-tier contenders have no idea how much money they have to spend.

If the Yankees play it ultra safe, they'll leave Grisham untethered. But they're probably securely slated to lose him and get a draft pick back if they do make the call.