Trent Grisham's playoff performance might've just made up Yankees' mind for 2026

One of the biggest questions facing the New York Yankees this offseason will be how to handle their outfield conundrum. Cody Bellinger is likely to opt out, Trent Grisham will be a free agent, Spencer Jones likely will angle for a role, and Jasson Dominguez is a total enigma. The only sure thing is that Aaron Judge will be ticketed for right field.

Just a year ago, this dilemma seemed unthinkable. Jones hadn't fully tapped into his power while striking out nearly 37% of the time at Double-A Somerset. Grisham was rumored to be on the DFA chopping block after failing to wrestle a starting job away from the underwhelming and now unemployed Alex Verdugo.

However, 2025 saw Grisham break out. A thrilling, and at times bizarre, power surge propelled him to a career year highlighted by 34 homers and a .235/.348/.464 line. When it was leaked that the qualifying offer would come in at $22 million, the Yankees' decision with regard to Grisham's future seemed simple. Now it's anything but.

Trent Grisham's postseason performance is putting his Yankees future in doubt

Grisham's lack of track record means a lucrative long-term deal likely isn't in the cards. With wRC+ numbers of 83, 89, and 93 from 2022 through 2024, teams would need to know for sure that 2025's 129 mark wasn't a fluke.

At the same time, Grisham's power and 14.1% walk rate have looked real nice out of the leadoff spot, setting up Judge and the rest of the big bats in the Yankees' lineup. The logical conclusion, then, would be to tag the 28-year-old former San Diego Padre with the qualifying offer, which he would likely accept.

After all, $22 million is a pretty nice payday, and a repeat in 2026 would have thethrow-in from the Juan Soto trade back on the open market on the right side of 30 and ready to reel in a long-term deal.

However, Grisham has more or less disappeared in the playoffs. Despite a double and a walk in Game 3 that allowed Judge to drive him in twice, he has mostly no-showed at the plate throughout the playoffs with a .167/.259/.250 line.

Grisham is never going to be known for his hit tool. Instead, his plate discipline and ability to crush mistakes in the zone have been what have driven his success in 2025. With that comes a lower-than-expected strikeout rate of 23.6%.

However, in October, the quality of the hurlers on the mound is significantly better, and the frequency of mistakes is much less, making it all the more concerning that Grisham is struggling - and, most importantly, striking out significantly more at a 29.6% rate during the playoffs.

Based on this small-sample-size and pressure-packed body of work, the Yankees may very well decide that a hefty one-year prove-it deal isn't worth it and cut Grisham loose to test his luck on the open market.