Yankees News: Tommy John's message, RISP stats without Aaron Judge, AL East race

The New York Yankees had an off day on Monday (Aug. 10) to regroup following a weekend series against the Atlanta Braves that saw some incredible pitching performances and some woefully inefficient offense. The Yankees emerged 2-1 from the three-game set. While they didn't get any style points, they got the job done.

That series also included New York's Old-Timers' Day festivities. This year's edition was the 78th installment of the tradition that has been around since 1947. It's always fun to see the faces of Yankees lore reappear with the team, though some, like yours truly, start to feel real old watching the players who captured our hearts as children returning to the diamond.

Yankees' great Tommy John issues heartfelt message amid Old-Timer's Day absence

Few players can truly say that the impact they've made on the game will stand the test of time, but Tommy John is one of those figures whose name will continue to live in MLB's general consciousness eternally.

The memory of his playing career, one that spanned an astonishing 26 years — beginning in 1963 and ending in 1989 — may fade, but the revolutionary procedure that bears his name will likely never go away.

The only interruption to John's career was the 1975 season when he underwent what is now known as Tommy John surgery to repair the UCL in his left elbow. While John wasn't the inventor of the procedure, nor was he the surgeon who successfully repaired his torn ligament, the fact that he came back and pitched 13 more years is remarkable.

Think about it. Even if the surgery was a success, if John wasn't able to come back and pitch as he had pre-injury, the procedure may have never taken hold and saved thousands of careers over the years.

Now 83 years old and in poor health, John, who spent two stints with the Yankees totaling eight seasons, was unable to attend the celebration due to illness. He issued a sad message to the club and the fans.

Unfortunately, that sounds like a farewell. If so, we should all be grateful to Mr. John for his contributions to the Yankees franchise and baseball as a whole.

Yankees' RISP failures prove that there's a greater issue than just missing Aaron Judge

By now, it should be clear what sort of impact Aaron Judge has on the Yankees' lineup. Despite his performance not quite reaching his own lofty standards, the Yankees captain had posted a 151 wRC+ before going down with a rib injury. Up through his last game on May 31, New York's offense was one of the best units in the league.

Now, though, scoring runs has become a struggle. The Yankees have suffered from poor performances from key figures such as Jazz Chisholm Jr., and far too often no one has stepped up to fill the void. The biggest area where the team has struggled is with runners in scoring position.

Updating the numbers to reflect where the team stands as it enters action on Aug. 11 shows that the struggle is very much real, and the drop-off without Judge has been dramatic.

The decline has been dramatic, and while Judge, both by his own production and his presence, aided the early-season success, his absence alone cannot explain the percipitous decline. The Yankees' OPS with RISP since June 1 ranks dead last at .608, and that's significantly worse than the two clubs tied for 29th in the majors, the Cincinnati Reds and Seattle Mariners, both of whom own .646 marks.

To be fair, the Yankees are missing more than just Judge, with both Cody Bellinger and Giancarlo Stanton on the IL, but Bellinger was around for some of this dreadful run, and the team should have more than just three players who can produce in these critical situations.

If something doesn't change soon, the Yankees are looking at a bleak outcome for the 2026 season, regardless of when Judge returns.

The Yankees might be facing a grim reality in the AL East chase

The dog days of August are here, and the heat his cranking up on the Yankees in the AL East race. While the club has mostly treaded water of late, going 5-5 over its last 10 games, that hasn't been nearly enough. The Red Sox were streaking until they dropped three straight, but more concerningly the Tampa Bay Rays have taken this opportunity to extend their lead.

At 66-52 on the season, New York now sits six games behind Tampa with 44 games left to play. That's a tough hill to climb, and it's reflected in the odds. FanGraphs gives the Yankees just a 15.1% chance of winning the division, while the Rays are at 79.5%.

That also means the Yankees also have just a 15.1% chance of getting a first-round bye, making their postseason road that much bumpier. Interestingly enough, New York's odds of winning the World Series are better than Tampa's (ever so slightly), with a 9.3% chance versus 9.2% for the Rays.

Without an incredible hot streak or unlikely health luck coming soon, it's hard to see this changing before the season comes to a close.

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