Yankees’ metrics deliver mixed message about defense, match Dodgers in key stat

The New York Yankees are bad at baseball fundamentals. That's the reason for their summer slide, and the root cause of all their ills. Defensive miscues and baserunning blunders have become commonplace, and have been the primary reason they've underachieved.

That's the narrative we've been told, and we have all seen it with our own eyes. There's no way it can't be true, right? Well, not exactly.

A review of key defense and baserunning statistics put together by Paul Hembekides and shared by Buster Olney on X calls everything we know about the Yankees and their struggles with little league fundamentals into question.

Taking a look here, we can see that Yankee infielders definitely have a throwing problem, as anyone who has watched Anthony Volpe butcher shortstop knows. However, the club is tied with the Los Angeles Dodgers for the fewest outs made running the bases, suggesting some prowess, though overall they grade out slightly below the middle of the pack.

Putting together the complete defensive picture, the Yankees have only allowed three more unearned runs than the MLB average, suggesting that errors haven't cost them nearly as much as we believe. As for the whole of New York's defensive performance, Defensive Runs Saved pegs them at a hair above average, coming in at 14th in baseball, while their defensive efficiency rating is elite at sixth in the league.

So what in the world is going on? It seems on a nightly basis that the team is committing multiple back-breaking gaffes, yet somehow they're good defensively and on the bases? Well, there's a bit more than meets the eye.

Yankees' defensive and baserunning metrics heavily disagree with the eye-test, clouding the truth regarding the team's performance

While the debate isn't as red-hot as it was during the sabermetric revolution in the early 2000s, what we see here is a classic case of the eye-test and the stats disagreeing. It's important to note both methods of evaluation have their value, and both have their flaws that, when not considered, render them ineffective as evaluation tools.

For example, as much of what we rely on when evaluating defense and baserunning is open to interpretation. As Max Fried will tell you, errors are an imperfect metric as they are at the sole discretion of the official scorer, who can even change their mind after the fact, sometimes bringing about huge consequences.

Secondly, it's important to truly understand what the metrics are trying to measure. For defense, the two primary advanced metrics that measure performance are Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Outs Above Average (OAA). Though they're often used interchangeably, they measure slightly different things.

For example, DRS attempts to measure a player's defensive performance by taking the probabilities of making a play relative to the league average, and comparing it to the expected run value of said play. That means not all plays are created equal, and certain key data points like pre-pitch positioning aren't always considered. As an example, if a ball falls into a zone where an average defender would have made the play, the player gets dinged, but if he wasn't properly positioned ahead of time, the blame may lie more with the coaches than the player.

OAA is a bit different. Without getting too much into the weeds, the calculation differs for infielders and outfielders, but in short, rather than focusing on the potential run value saved, it takes that context out of the equation and focuses solely on whether or not a player is securing more or fewer outs than the average defender at his position. Not all outs are created equally, however, which means that while useful, it shouldn't be the be all, end all.

These distinctions also explain why a team like the Yankees can rank above average with +24 DRS, but also come in below average with -10 OAA, which is 20th in the league.

A final point on defense is that, sometimes, there are plays that don't show up in the box score that create ripple effects the stats simply can't account for. An example would be Anthony Volpe's baffling decision to throw behind Jarren Duran at second base on Cedanne Rafaela's grounder instead of taking the out at first. The play went down as a fielder's choice, but it was clearly the wrong read. Had Duran come around to score, it would have been charged as an earned run since no error was committed; however, if a run had scored, Volpe's incorrect fielding decision would have been the reason why.

A primary reason the Yankees don't make many outs on the basepaths is that they are one of the most conservative teams in baseball. That means that they sometimes forgo taking the extra base even if there was a relatively good chance the runner would be safe. It also doesn't mean that blunders like Jazz Chisholm Jr.'s pop-up adventure are any less excusable.

All of this is to say that the context matters, and fans aren't unjustified in raking Aaron Boone over the coals, even if the stats paint a more rosy picture than one would believe.