Yankees appear to be delaying inevitable mistake with Nolan Arenado trade

Earlier this offseason, the Yankees tried their luck at swapping one onerous contract for another, reportedly offering Marcus Stroman's 2025 and 2026 seasons in exchange for Nolan Arenado through 2027. That, on its face, was ridiculous; the Cardinals are looking to rebuild, not "add more money, and only for a slightly shorter term"'. The offer leaking felt like the Yankees trying a desperation heave, then walking back to the locker room and shrugging after it fell five feet short of the rim.

That should've been where the team's Arenado talks ceased, but the rumor has since been strongly revived in the wake of their Paul Goldschmidt addition. Suddenly, it feels not just plausible that the Yankees will shore up their defense and diminish their offensive ceiling by trading for the 33-year-old with a balky back, but rather inevitable.

And while it may not materialize before the holidays, it is starting to feel like the Yankees are kicking an inevitable conclusion down the line before eventually acquiescing, rather than capping talks with the "Stroman (or LeMahieu) or bust!" mantra they probably should've set as a hardline stance.

If we're going to do this -- and, sigh, it really does feel like we're going to do this, given Arenado's recent Instagram likes, Judge's long-term Instagram likes, and the third baseman's relationship with his "brother" Goldschmidt -- can the Yankees at least expand the trade to include a controllable reliever or Brendan Donovan? Too much to ask? Not enough to ask?

Yankees-Nolan Arenado trade is a terrible fit, but also feels inevitable

Now, for the optimistic folks who want to believe reporters instead of read tea leaves, Yankees insider Jack Curry doused the latest round of rumors in cold water on Tuesday, calling the team "out" on Arenado. But the smoke over the weekend was difficult to ignore, as much as we may have wanted to.

It can become difficult to argue with a certain sect of the fanbase against an Arenado addition, especially since the alternatives are bleak. A hole does remain at either second or third, and three years of Arenado is preferable to rolling out DJ LeMahieu at second/Jazz Chisholm at third, or some form of Oswaldo Cabrera platoon. But just because an option is preferable to the absolute bottom tier does not mean it's worth pursuing.

While Goldschmidt's regression in 2024 was troublesome, he remains elite at making contact when the contact does happen. Swing-and-miss against righties was his biggest issue. Maybe you believe that will change, and his first half of 2025 will look more like his locked-in second half of 2024. Maybe you believe the Yankees will manage him properly, allowing him to play to his strengths and tattoo left-handers. Maybe you just think things couldn't possibly get worst at first, which is the basis of the pro- Arenado argument, too. No one knows how Goldschmidt will turn out, but there are at least reasons to believe in the short-term risk.

Arenado's glove remains slick, but he is not built for this ballpark, and his tangible offensive decline the past two seasons -- from the metrics to the surface -- is likely due in large part to the troublesome back injury that derailed his 2023 season. He was roughly a league-average bat last year, but likely won't be for long (and Yankee Stadium will only speed up that regressive process).

If the Yankees simply must add Arenado, they shouldn't surrender anything of value in the process, or they should demand a lefty reliever like John King or JoJo Romero in the deal. Instead, the Yankees should ask St. Louis to take or leave the Stroman offer, while crossing their fingers that the Cardinals choose "leave".