Will Warren's overlooked spring could prove to be the key to Yankees' 2026 rotation

The New York Yankees' rotation has generated all kinds of buzz recently, and not necessarily for the best reasons. They've confirmed that they'll be going with a 4-man rotation to begin the season. While Aaron Boone hasn't named the exact order of the starters, the safe money is on Max Fried and Cam Schlittler at the top, followed by Will Warren and Ryan Weathers. Where, when, and if Luis Gil slots into the rotation when New York needs a fifth starter is anyone's guess.

Gil's spring, with the exception of two starts, has been less than encouraging, while Weathers has been arguably worse. That could have the club in a perilous situation resulting in things getting irreparably out of hand by the time Carlos Rodón and Gerrit Cole return from the IL.

The lynchpin that can keep everything on track in the early going is the last person fans would expect: Will Warren. Warren's performance until the veterans return will go a long way towards determining whether the Yankees sink or swim, but his impact likely extends far beyond the first couple of months of the season.

Will Warren will be the Yankees' rotation X-factor throughout the 2026 season

It might sound weird to count on Warren making a huge impact, considering he was so inconsistent in 2025. It felt as if the 26-year-old alternated between dominant double-digit strikeout outings and starts where he got smacked around and was chased out of the game by the second inning last year.

However, he's been dominant over the course of spring training, and his latest outing on March 22 was his most impressive start yet. Against the Philadelphia Phillies, he hurled five innings of one-hit ball, struck out six, and lowered his spring ERA to 1.42. In light of Carlos Lagrange mania and the concern over the rest of the back end of the rotation, he's flown under a lot of radars.

Spring stats aren't always super meaningful, but what should hold more weight is how great his stuff has looked.

Above is how his five-pitch mix graded out against Philadelphia, but it's really representative of how the repertoire has looked throughout spring training. If it holds, he can be a consistent third weapon behind Fried and Schlittler.

There will be a crunch coming once Rodón and Cole are back in action. Heading into the spring, Warren was likely the first candidate to be squeezed out of the rotation. That might not be the case anymore. Now he could be the last man standing between himself, Weathers, and Gil.

That's important, too, because we still don't have firm timelines for Rodón and Cole to come back. Rodón was excellent last season, but his wild inconsistency throughout his pinstripe tenure can't be completely discounted. Cole has looked great in his spring work, but aside from a couple of bullpen sessions and one inning of game action, he still has ways to go. Setbacks can still happen, and we also don't know how he'll look once he's activated from the IL. At 35 years old and coming off a major elbow surgery, there are no guarantees.

All of that puts Warren center stage. The right-hander pitching well could be the difference between a good rotation and a trainwreck early on. The statement he's made during spring training has him positioned for a breakout, and that can't go ignored at the onset of 2026.