With Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón out, Will Warren has become an incredibly important piece for the New York Yankees' starting rotation. Add in the fact that Ryan Weathers' electric stuff has yet to yield consistent results, and that Luis Gil was sent down to Scranton to begin the year to work through some mechanical issues, and Warren being a consistent performer has become that much more crucial.
So far, so good. Mostly. Warren has built on an impressive spring that saw his stuff tick up to put together a 3.07 ERA through his first three starts. Alongside some truly dominant showings from Max Fried and Cam Schlittler, the 26-year-old has been a prime reason why the Yankees' starters lead the majors with a 2.28 ERA.
With the way things have gone so far, Warren figures to very valuable even when it's back at full strength, but despite how well he's pitched so far, a concerning trend has emerged that he'll have to correct in order to truly provide the value New York needs.
Will Warren needs to improve his efficiency every fifth day for Yankees
Even with improved stuff and some better results, Warren still isn't pitching deep into games. His latest start against the Athletics saw him chased after 4 2/3 innings, and he's topped the five-inning threshold just once so far.
Aaron Boone acknowledged that efficiency has been a problem for the right-hander in his postgame comments.
"I thought he was good, sharp again. You know, it's a good offense over there. They strung some good at-bats against him, starting with [Lawrence] Butler on down, coming back around the next time. I thought he did a good job through the middle there to potentially get out of that fifth inning. So overall, I thought it was pretty good. They just made him work there in that fourth and fifth quite a bit to drive up the pitch count a little bit on him."
Warren was pulled after throwing 85 pitches, so even if he had been allowed to try and work out of the first-and-second jam he found himself in during the top of the fifth, his night was likely done after five anyway.
A big issue so far has been him falling behind in the count early. Warren's 49.2% first-strike rate is the third-lowest among MLB starters to start the year, setting the scene for him to find himself in deep counts frequently.
Compounding the problem is his inability to get hitters to chase outside of the zone. His 22.1% chase rate so far is a 15th percentile mark, and not that far off from the 24.7% clip he generated a year ago.
His stuff has been playing up this year, but if he doesn't trust it to get ahead of hitters, he'll make his job that much harder while also creating a dangerous trickle-down effect. Short outings will put more pressure on an unproven Yankees bullpen, and while the unit has been good so far, fatigue and burnout won't help.
To that end, things have been a mixed bag. The pen's 39 innings pitched is tied for the fewest frames thrown in the majors, but the relievers have made 42 appearances, which is the 12th-most so far. That means Boone has cycled through a lot of arms to piece together the middle and late innings, doubling down on a lack of efficiency.
Warren is going to need to prove that he can get ahead of hitters and put them away quickly to avoid laboring through his starts each time around. If he can, he'll emphasize his value and give the Yankees a much-needed boost. If not, we will see this become more of a problem as the season progresses.
