There's not enough of a sample size for Yankees haters to keep referencing this stat

There has been a lot to like about the New York Yankees' 2026 season so far. Through May 10, the offense ranks first in homers with 62, fourth in runs scored with 212, and third in OPS with a .787 mark. New York's starters own the second-best ERA in baseball at 3.07, and should be even stronger as Carlos Rodón has returned. Even the much-questioned bullpen has been good, ranking third in the majors with a 3.29 ERA.

Yet a seemingly damning statistic was floated has floated around social media ever since things went sideways in Milwaukee. The Yankees are just 1-8 against teams over .500. On the flip side, all of the damage seemed to have been done against bottom feeders as the club owned a 25-7 mark against teams below .500.

The haters and wolves in sheep's clothing are having a field day bending themselves into pretzels to prove that this iteration of the Yankees is not a good team. However, there's one thing that they're forgetting. It's a small thing, really, and very simple, but it's still incredibly early. Until we have a larger sample, the stat is truly meaningless.

There are some red flags to consider, but there are also some mitigating circumstances. So before you run out on the team like your hair is on fire, let's take a look at what the performance really means.

Yankees' record against winning teams is misleading, but there are warning signs to consider

First, let's talk about the stat itself. In the American League currently, there are only two teams other than the Yankees to own a record better than .500. That is the 26-13 Tampa Bay Rays and the 21-19 Athletics. Part of the issue here, then, is that the Yankees have hardly played any teams with over .500 records. It's only those two clubs, plus Milwaukee, that they've taken on and currently have more wins than losses.

That number could change simply because of how the stat is framed. For example, the Texas Rangers are just two games under .500, and the Seattle Mariners are three games under .500. If those two win a few ball games, the stat turns itself on its head as the Yankees are a combined 6-3 against them. Ditto for the Royals and Marlins, both three games under .500 as of May 11. New York posted a combined 5-1 record against those two clubs.

Point being, we haven't established contenders from pretenders yet, except for the Mets; we know they're bad. In a few weeks, we could look back at this stat and say that the Yankees consistently take care of business against winning teams.

So it doesn't matter that the Yankees are last in the league in singles. Despite the record, the Yankees are better than league average against "good" pitching (ERA- below 100), with a wOBA of .320 versus a league-average mark of .304

What is a concern is the team's performance in one-run games. The Yankees are 3-8 in those situations. The late-inning relievers are a big reason why. In the middle game of the set against the Brewers, while Fernando Cruz got tagged with the loss, it was Camilo Doval who first coughed up the lead in the eighth. Then, in the series finale, it was David Bednar who served up Brice Turang's walk-off shot.

The strength of the New York bullpen has been in middle relief, with guys like Brent Headrick, Tim Hill, and Cruz getting a lot of run. The way the Yankees are setting these guys up for burnout is scary, and directly relates to the shakiness that Doval and Bednar have shown.

If anything derails the Yankees, it's too early to say that it's that they can't beat good teams. It's that their bullpen could fall into disrepair as they lean too hard on the few reliable arms that they have. One way or another, they'll need to address this deficiency sooner rather than later.

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