There are real problems with the Yankees relying on Gerrit Cole in the postseason

After nearly a year and a half away from the New York Yankees recovering from Tommy John surgery, it was clear to all that Gerrit Cole returning to his 2023 Cy Young form was going to be a long shot in 2026. The good news was that the Yankees didn't need him to pitch like one of the five best pitchers in the game to be successful.

With Cam Schlittler's emergence, Max Fried's presence on the roster, and the talent and depth that Carlos Rodón, Will Warren, and Ryan Weathers provided, it was clear that merely good performance from Cole would get the job done. In fact, if he could pitch as he did before going down in 2024, New York's rotation would be just fine.

He's basically done just that as the Yankees have weathered injuries to their starters, but have been at the top of the leaderboards in ERA and most other statistical categories all year long thanks to the deep and talented rotation. It's actually uncanny how similar Cole's performance has been this year compared to when he last took the mound in 2024.

It's like double vision looking at the stats side-by-side. With Cole no longer having to shoulder the load as the staff ace, it would seem that the Yankees are in fine shape in leaning on him as one of their playoff starters.

Despite that production, the underlying metrics make it seem as if there's more going on here than we think, and we could be in line for a major letdown.

Trouble could be brewing for the Yankees and Gerrit Cole in the playoffs, as things aren't as rosy as they seem

One of the first concerns with Cole coming back was how his velocity would fare after a major elbow surgery and so much time away. The 36-year-old was pushing triple digits during his rehab outings. Now, his in-game fastball velo is sitting at 96.8 miles per hour, identical to his 2023 Cy Young performance and nearly a mile per hour more than the 95.9 miles per hour he recorded in 2024.

Checking off that box is important, but there are still concerns. First is the fact that Cole has gotten hit hard, and often. He's yielding an average exit velocity of 90.7 miles per hour, which is a fifth-percentile performance. Combine that with a 44% hard-hit rate (10th percentile), a ground ball rate that checks in at the eighth percentile, and a barrel rate of 8.7% that ranks in the 27th percentile, and those hard-hit balls can end up going a long way.

We saw that in action when he got jumped out of the gate by the San Diego Padres in his last outing on Sept. 6, giving up homers to the first three batters of the game. While the veteran did settle down and only allow one more run while throwing seven innings, it was enough damage for New York to take the loss.

There are other red flags as well. Cole's chase rate is down in the 30th percentile and his whiff rate comes in as a 28th percentile mark. While he's still getting a decent amount of strikeouts, he's relying on contact to get outs a bit more and the results could be scary.

On top of that, and possibly as a root cause, his breaking pitches have been less effective. His slider and curve have combined for a -2 run value, after being worth a total run value of 9 in 2024 and 16 in 2023. Those are important weapons that, together, he goes to nearly a third of the time.

We've seen these pockets of concern pop up in other starts throughout the season, and it can seem as if he goes from cruising to being in trouble quickly. Brian Cashman has often looked at long-term injury returns like Cole as impact additions, but that only works if they can perform at a high level in October. That will be a challenge for Cole as the lineups he faces get more fearsome.

Combine these under-the-surface concerns with Cole with the concern Max Fried's oft-injured elbow brings, and a pessimist would say that the Yankees' vaunted rotation might collapse like a house of cards under the bright October lights. Here's the good news, though. Cole is a grizzled, battle-tested postseason veteran who is no stranger to stepping up in big moments. While there's reason to have concern, he's also not one to count out.

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