Prospect guru projects massive leap for Yankees' Dax Kilby as hot AFL performance continues

Dax Kilby has only exceeded expectations since the New York Yankees took him in the first round of the 2025 MLB Draft. Those doubters when the pick was turned in were forced to eat their words in record time. Unfortunately, Kilby was grounded for most of the 2026 season with a hamstring injury.

As a result, he's off to the Arizona Fall League to make up for lost time, and down in the desert he's excelling, to the surprise of no one. So far through 13 games, the Yankees phenom is hitting .288/.350/.558 with two homers. He's still a couple of weeks short of his 20th birthday.

Folks are taking note, and FanGraphs prospect guru Eric Longenhagen in particular had some high praise for the youngster, while ranking the most notable prospects competing in the AFL. He pegged Kilby alongside Texas Rangers stud Sebastian Walcott in the "Ascending, Star Caliber Prospects" tier.

"Kilby is the best pure hitter in the Fall League. His hands just seem to be in the right place a lot of the time, and he can adjust the posture of his upper body to help get the barrel where it needs to go. He peppers both gaps with a lot of hard contact and he still has room for more mass," Longenhagen wrote, before projecting Kilby as a top 20 prospect in FanGraphs upcoming rankings.

Currently, Kilby ranks 103 on FanGraphs' rankings, so a move to the top 20 would be absolutely massive, and it's even more impressive when one considers that he's played just 54 minor league games since turning pro.

Dax Kilby's bat will eventually make him a force for the Yankees

Here's the most exciting thing. After hitting .353/.457/.441 in Tampa last year, Kilby didn't rest on his laurels. He's kept working and adjusting, and has figured out some pretty serious swing changes that he's putting to work in the AFL.

"We're actually going through a pretty big swing change," Kilby told MLB Pipeline's Jim Callis at the beginning of October. "I'm starting narrow and open, whereas I was pretty wide and closed. It's pretty much a complete change in my swing, but I'm super excited to use it. I've been using it for a couple of weeks now and it's felt amazing, so I'm excited to see how it plays in games."

It's really something, and it really underscores his natural feel for hitting, to be able to make radical changes and not miss a beat. It's also impressive for a prospect so young to have the maturity to go through with a drastic change despite having some initial success.

They obviously have all the numbers and science stuff behind it, but it all came down to getting more into my back hip and kind of just getting more in my legs throughout my swing," Kilby added. "That is the key that the Yankees guys have told me to being more adjustable and just having more success at higher levels."

After the revelations that certain players, especially younger, struggling hitters like Anthony Volpe, are resistant to analytics, it's nice to see that Kilby is enthusiastically responding to data-driven coaching. It's even more encouraging to see that it is paying off down in the AFL.

Longenhagen noted that Kilby's ultimate defensive home is still a question mark. That's not news to us, but it's almost irrelevant. He's not a player without a defensive position. He's simply a player who likely isn't a major league caliber shortstop. Those are two very different things.

At the end of the day, though, much of Kilby's value is tied to his bat. If he continues on this pace, he's going to be one of those rare hitters with power, patience, and superb contact skills. That's an incredible profile, and it's going to cause him to shoot up the prospect rankings in no time, foreshadowing what will be a bright future in the Bronx.

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