MLB Draft experts already admitting they were wrong on Yankees' first-round pick after scorching start

It takes a lot more than an impressive month to get a mea culpa from MLB Draft experts ... usually. But Baseball Prospectus' quick about-face on New York Yankees first-round choice Dax Kilby only further emphasizes how much impressive data he piled up in August before the Low-A season came to a close.

The Yankees selected Kilby and paid him handsomely with the 39th overall pick in the draft, their first selection knocked back due to their egregious behavior (signing Juan Soto replacements, because MLB thinks it should be illegal to try hard). That was commensurate with where most experts rated Kilby prior to the draft, and though most expected the Yankees to choose a pitcher first, it wasn't stunning to see them snag a highly-rated high school bat.

Based on Kilby's debut, it seems like he should've been rated a little higher.

Baseball Prospectus kept Kilby out of their top 50 pre-draft prospect rankings, and recently called him their "worst miss" of the process after he hit .353 with an .898 OPS in 68 at-bats to open his career with aplomb. Baseball America went even further, calling Kilby a top-five prospect in the level already and granting that he should've been a "clear" first-rounder a month and a half ago.

Yankees first-round MLB Draft pick Dax Kilby opening eyes after scorching pro debut

It's hard not to see a little Ben Rice in his swing. And he's a middle infielder. Can we pull off some rush delivery to the Bronx, please?

If you liked Kilby's swing and counting numbers, you'll probably love his metrics, too. Fans of MLB teams with Florida State League affiliates are lucky because their Low-A affiliates play in teched-up spring training ballparks. That gives us access to MLB-level Statcast numbers, and Kilby should be very grateful that his home park has allowed him to be properly assessed. The hard-hit metrics are positively inflamed across the board, from his 89th percentile expected batting average to his 85th percentile hard-hit rate. He never chases (99th percentile). He rarely Ks (86th percentile). He isn't quite Rice-ian yet, but it's enough to make experts do double- and triple-takes while reassessing their priors.

His worst metric, though? He only ranked in the 22nd percentile for pull percentage in the air. He'll have to figure that out before his sweet left-handed swing starts taking aim at the short porch. Seems like he's already got his marching orders for High-A Hudson Valley next spring.