Predicting which prospects Yankees will fail to protect ahead of Rule 5 Draft

Tuesday is not only the day where the New York Yankees will learn whether or not Trent Grisham is accepting their one-year, $22 million qualifying offer (he's not ... right?). It's also the day they must trim their 40-man roster and wedge as many eligible prized prospects as they can onto it before the Rule 5 Draft at the Winter Meetings takes a few good men out of the system.

Side Note: Kiiiiiind of makes no sense that Friday's the non-tender deadline, and it takes place three days after this, right? Like, if the Yankees need roster spots today, then are poised to free up several more on Friday (Mark Leiter Jr., I'm looking at you) ... why have two related purges that can't help each other?

Plot holes aside, Tuesday is an important day for roster maintenance, and the Yankees will likely add a few names to their 40-man to keep them out of the draft pool. Teams that do draft players must retain them on their active rosters for the full 2026 season (assuming health), so the Yankees will prioritize protecting their absolute top-tier prospects and mature pitchers who could stick as relievers all year.

The problem? After signing Ryan Yarbrough, the Yankees have only four available slots (though, again, they'll likely create more on Friday — this timing is very stupid!). Spencer Jones is getting protected. So is Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz. Chase Hampton, formerly in the Yankees' upper echelon of prospects, but now rehabbing from Tommy John surgery performed in March, would previously have seemed like a lock, but ... will he be healthy at some point this season? If not, a claiming team could stash him on their 60-Day IL all season and get away with thievery. If so ... will they really force him into his MLB debut immediately after a TJ rehab assignment? Depends how ruthless the league is (read: very ruthless).

All three of those players seem likely to be protected. So, how much trouble are the Yankees in? Do they have any other big-league ready hurlers to consider? As always ... yes. Yes, they do. This is why they always get roasted in these things, and why Brian Cashman tries to trade away as many Rule 5 eligible guys as he can at the prior deadline.

These prime prospects probably won't be protected by Yankees ahead of 2025 Rule 5 Draft

For now — for NOW — the Yankees have one spot available for high-minors relievers Eric Reyzelman and Harrison Cohen, as well as Hueston Morrill, who was named the Best Bullpen Arm in the South Atlantic League by Baseball America this year. They also must decide on the oft-injured Brendan Beck, who roared back to health in 2025 four years after being selected in the second round as a close-to-the-pros mid-rotation arm. If the Yankees had lost one more arm this summer, they probably would've gone to Beck for a spot start after Cam Schlittler.

Beyond that group, the Yankees also must decide what to do with left-handed first baseman TJ Rumfield, with 16 homers and an .825 OPS at Triple-A this past season, as well as former top prospects Brock Selvidge and Henry Lalane, both left-handed pitchers. Lalane remains No. 9 on the Yankees' Top 30 (according to MLB Pipeline) and Selvidge is 10th. You're telling me neither of those guys will be protected? Probably not, without some movement. They'll just be crossing their fingers and hoping that no one pulls a Luis Torrens stunt with Lalane, stashing him on the MLB roster way too early for his own good just to complete the mischief.

As the clock ticks, my prediction? Beck is protected. Hampton is begrudgingly protected (and it's probably a mistake). The Yankees clear an additional space and pick between Reyzelman and Cohen, protecting the one they prefer. They might pull off a small trade by dealing Rumfield and a current 40-man player to do so; Rumfield has value, but probably won't play a role in the Bronx. Lalane, Selvidge, Morrill, and outfielder Jace Avina are left to the wolves, and Selvidge/Morrill are taken.

The Yankees, as per usual, have significant overflow here, and there's not much they can do about it other than grit their teeth and hope their current bullpen can hold it down after losing some high-minors depth in December.