Yankees’ World Series odds remain unchanged despite Aaron Judge’s expected return

The New York Yankees received some positive news on Wednesday, as reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge is reportedly expected to return to the team for Friday’s game against the Baltimore Orioles, barring any setbacks. 

Judge has not played since June 4 with a toe injury.

The potential return of the Yankees’ best player would certainly increase their chances of making the playoffs in the 2023 season with the team currently 2.5 games out of a Wild Card spot in the American League. 

Despite the news surrounding Judge, Vegas still isn’t sold on New York. The Yankees’ odds to win the World Series have remained at +2500.

Yankees’ odds to win the World Series in 2023

Aaron Judge should boost Yankees’ offense, but enough to win the World Series?

New York’s offense could desperately use Judge, who was playing at an MVP-caliber level before going down.

The five-time All-Star is hitting .291/.404/.674 on the season with 19 homers and 51 RBI despite playing in just 49 games. Judge still has the highest wins above replacement of any Yankees hitter this season, and only ace Gerrit Cole has a higher WAR than him in 2023.

That shows just how impactful Judge is to the Yankees’ success. New York is 30-19 when Judge is in the lineup this season and a putrid 23-29 when he's not.

It’s possible that one player could turn the Yankees season around, but the rest of the team is still going to need to step up. 

New York ranks 20th in Major League Baseball in OPS over the last 30 days and 21st in runs scored. Judge can help improve those rankings, but he can’t do it alone.

Some fans and bettors may look at the Yankees as a value pick with Judge returning, but New York had a very similar roster in 2022 – and got off to a better start – yet still failed to make the World Series and struggled mightily in the playoffs.

Judge’s return is an unquestioned boost to the Yankees, but it may not reflect that in the odds until the team starts winning at a higher rate.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.