Yankees vs. Tigers prediction and odds for Monday, Aug. 28 (Fade both starting pitchers)

Luis Severino's last performance should not be considered the norm going forward.

New York Yankees starting pitcher Luis Severino.
New York Yankees starting pitcher Luis Severino. / Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Yankees’ playoff hopes are all but done, and the team is trying to salvage anything it can at the end of the 2023 season to have something to look forward to in 2024.

It’s very unlikely that one of those things will be Luis Severino’s future with the franchise, as the former Cy Young candidate has been dreadful in 2023. Severino did toss 6.2 innings of one-hit ball in his last start, but his season ERA is still 7.26.

He gets the ball for the Yankees against the Detroit Tigers on Monday night. Detroit will have youngster Reese Olson on the mound for the start in this game. Olson has also worked out of the bullpen in 2023, posting a 5.29 ERA across 15 appearances.

Yankees vs. Tigers probable pitchers for Monday, Aug. 28

  • Yankees: Luis Severino (righty) – 3-8, 7.26 ERA
  • Tigers: Reese Olson (righty) – 2-5, 5.295 ERA

Both of these pitchers have struggled in 2023, so how does that translate to the betting market? 

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Here’s my advice on how to wager on the Yankees-Tigers matchup: 

Yankees vs. Tigers odds, run line and total

Yankees vs. Tigers prediction and pick

Yes, Severino pitched arguably his best outing of the season his last time out, but I don’t expect that to become the norm.

Since July 1, Severino has a 9.16 ERA, allowing at least three runs in all but two of his starts. Even against a Detroit team that ranks 29th in OPS this season, he’s liable to give up a bunch of runs. 

The Tigers have also been hitting the ball better as of late, ranking 14th in the league in OPS and fifth in home runs over the last 15 days. 

The Yankees have lost a ton of games as of late to fall six games below .500 on the season, but I’m not sold on Olson winning this outing for Detroit, either. 

The young righty has a 6.87 ERA in four starts this month, allowing 10 runs in 7.1 innings of work over his last two outings. 

With the total set at 8.5 runs in this game, I think there is a reason to take the OVER given how bad these pitchers have been in 2023. New York and Detroit have not been elite offenses, but they might be able to find something with two struggling starters on the mound.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.