Yankees vs. Rangers prediction and odds for Sunday, April 30 (Why UNDER is best bet)

Apr 25, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher Nestor Cortes (65)
Apr 25, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher Nestor Cortes (65) / Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

The Yankees and Rangers wrap up a four game series in Arlington as the Yankees try to figure out an offensive attack with Aaron Judge on the shelf due to a hip injury.

Judge suffered a hip injury in the first of four games against Texas and the team has fallen off a cliff without the reigning MVP in the lineup, scoring two runs on Friday and getting shutout on Saturday night. It won't get easier for the Yankees against left hander Martin Perez, but at least the team has fellow southpaw Nestor Cortes on the bump to slow down the Rangers offense.

How should we bet this matchup? First, let's look at the odds:

Yankees vs. Rangers odds, run line and total

Yankees vs. Rangers prediction and pick

The Yankees offense is in a dire state without Judge in the lineup. While Anthony Rizzo has been elite this season with a .291 batting average and five home runs, he is seeing far more pitches due to the impact Judge has in the heart of the lineup, hitting .261 with six dingers himself and 14 walks.

Without Judge, the Yankees offense is going to struggle again to generate runs considering they are hitting .226 against left handed pitching this season, 25th in the big leagues.

Perez's numbers hint that some regression is in order, he has a 2.60 ERA supported by a fielding independent pitching (FIP) of 4.38, which means that the defense behind him is keeping him out of some trouble, but I don't believe this Yankees lineup is going to be the group to take advantage.

Meanwhile, Cortes has a tough challenge against a strong Rangers' lineup, but I'll side with the Yankees lefty to get the job done. He has pitched to a 3.49 ERA this season which is right in line with his FIP of 3.61. What's most impressive is his walk rate dropping below two batters per nine innings.

Texas is a dangerous team that checks in top five in wRC+, meaning they are one of the best in baseball at getting players on base and generating scoring opportunities, but Cortes can keep the damage to a minimum with his ability to avoid walking batters and allowing hard contact.

I can't count on the Yankees offense without Judge, but I can bank on Cortes to keep this to a low scoring, competitive game. Give me the under on Sunday.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.