MLB stats guru kills Yankees fans' vibes with Juan Soto 2024 home run prediction

Every time a lefty hitter is connected to the New York Yankees, everybody goes, "Oh ma GAWD that swing is PERFECT for the short porch!" Doesn't matter if it actually is or not. The mere thought of a lefty in the batter's box at Yankee Stadium elicits unreasonable excitement because of Brian Cashman's inability to construct a diverse lineup the last three years.

The only player we'd truly argue was tailor-made for the park's dimensions was Bryce Harper, and that ship has long sailed.

But now, the Yanks have Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo. And the excitement surrounding Soto is through the roof. His bat and plate discipline are exactly what this struggling Yankees offense needs. Verdugo is a nice addition to the bottom of the lineup, but Soto is a once-in-a-generation player.

He's an all-around hitter, but his 162-game average for homers is 33 across his six-year career. You've already seen him go yard many times at Yankee Stadium, most notably when he rocketed a no-doubter off Randy Vásquez on Apple TV this past season.

But, unfortunately, the short porch may not translate to an increase in home runs for the star slugger. MLB.com's Mike Petriello, who dives into more stats and metrics than you could imagine, sadly killed everyone's vibe by putting forth a number of salient points about Soto's hit profile.

MLB stats guru kills Yankees fans' vibes with Juan Soto 2024 home run prediction

Was DraftKings on crack when they set Soto's over/under for home runs at 45? Petriello predicts 32 for Soto, citing the fact he's an all-fields hitter with just a 25% pull rate on line drives. Not only that, but Yankee Stadium's deep left-center field might actually keep some of Soto's rockets in the park.

Petriello added that right field in Yankee Stadium actually decreases the amount of doubles and triples, especially off the bats of lefties, because of how small it is. In theory, Soto's extra-base hit total could shrink as well. His 162-game average for doubles and triples is only 33 -- just like his homers.

Soto's one-year trial in the Bronx won't be underwhelming, but it could reveal important information about a future long-term fit. Though he's the kind of hitter that can probably alter his approach on a dime and start mashing, there's little reason for him to mess around in an all-important contract year.

All Yankees fans need to do is sit back, relax and watch Soto do his thing. He's one of the most unique hitters of our time and park dimensions be damned, he'll be appreciated for every second.