The Yankees are in disarray, even according to emotionless mathematical models.
Typically, FanGraphs' playoff odds metric takes a long time to adjust to a talented roster's on-field struggles. After all, the percentages always skew in favor of things evening out. If a power-packed roster falls apart in the first half, the odds say they'll likely approach normalcy in the second. Especially if they're, say, getting a star back (Aaron Judge, you up?).
Sadly, the Yankees' pre-break slump during the supposedly easy portion of their schedule, against a slew of .500 teams, also-rans, and the A's, has left them only barely on the right side of the curve.
The Yanks are still over 50% to make the playoffs, but that figure feels sort of ... inflated, like when Vegas odds beef up the Yankees because they're da Yankees, come on, and people love to bet on them. New York enters the second half at a 56.8% chance to make the postseason, the fourth-best mark in the AL East (yes, FanGraphs finally believes in Baltimore).
MLB Standings by FanGraphs Playoff Odds: Yankees, rightfully, in fourth
But, hey, they have the third-best World Series odds in the division! Boston's in last at 1.1% (little low?), while the O's are at 2.8! New York? 3.3%. Parade back on!
When you rank the AL's supposed contenders by their current playoff odds, the Yankees currently sit on the wrong side of history.
1. Rays (98.1%, 71.5% to win division)
2. Orioles (76.1%)
3. Blue Jays (70.3%, and that's with going 0-7 against Boston)
4. Rangers (68.6%)
5. Astros (65.6%)
6. Twins (57.1%)
7. Yankees (56.8%)
8. Guardians (41.2%)
9. Red Sox (29.2%)
Finishing seventh in a league where six teams make the playoffs will leave you high and dry. And everyone and their mother knows that when push comes to shove, and the mighty Astros and lowly Yankees are the teams supposedly fighting for that final playoff spot, Houston will find a way to conquer.
Will the Yankees be buyers? Sellers? Hybrid artists? Will the Rangers (or Jays) fall off enough to give the Yanks a chance to buck the odds? Will Houston surge, leaving Texas sputtering and in the dust? Or, will the coin fall tails, sending the Yankees home for a long winter to think about what they've done (and haven't done)? Anything's possible, but the latter sounds likely.
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