4 questions the Yankees need to answer about the 2024 starting rotation

The Yankees' starting rotation is perhaps at a crossroads this offseason, and the front office has plenty of decisions on their hands with how to better prepare the staff for 2024.

They have a varied collections of arms: one established ace in Gerrit Cole; a few solid up-and-comers in Clarke Schmidt and Michael King; some guys coming off injury-riddled 2023 seasons like Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes; and a ton of upper minors depth.

It's assumed the Yankees' front office will be adding and subtracting from this unit in order to make the unit more efficient and supplement other areas of the roster, but they'll have to answer some pressing questions about their internal and external options as that plan comes into focus.

4 questions the Yankees need to answer about the 2024 starting rotation

Will they sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto?

The Yankees have been heavily linked to Yamamoto ever since Brian Cashman's September visit to Japan to watch the right-hander pitch live. Since then, he's finished his platform season with a better ERA than countrymen Masahiro Tanaka, Yu Darvish, and Daisuke Matsuzaka did in theirs, and threw a 14-strikeout complete game in the Japan Series to put the icing on the cake.

Yamamoto might be the best Japanese pitcher who has ever looked to make the jump to MLB so far, but this is no secret to rival front offices. The Yankees should expect to find themselves in a bidding war with the Mets and other suitors.

If Yamamoto is really the game changer he's been lauded as, the Yankees should stop at nothing in their pursuit. Pitchers that have thrown a full season's workload of innings are the most valuable commodities in today's market, and at just 25 years old, Yamamoto looks to be a better long-term option than just about anyone who would be available in free agency or via trade.

The right-hander sits 93-95 MPH with his fastball (he's topped out at 99), and has impeccable control of his secondary stuff, which includes a cutter, curveball and splitter. He would slot in at the number two spot in the Yankees' rotation and stay there for years to come.

Can they trust Carlos Rodón?

Rodón's first season in the Bronx was an unmitigated disaster in almost every possible way. His season debut was delayed until July 7 due to foream/back issues, he landed on the IL again in August with a hamstring strain, and pitched to a disastrous 6.85 ERA across just 64.1 innings. It's not what the Yankees were hoping for when they signed him to a six-year, $162 million contract last December.

In spite of all of that, it's not crazy to believe Rodón is capable of returning to his peak 2021-2022 form going forward. It's not as simple a fix as letting him heal from whatever lingering injury he might be dealing with, but many underlying metrics suggest that he's not too far gone.

Rodón's bread-and-butter pitch that made him such a coveted get on last year's free agent market was his four-seam fastball, which he threw about 95.5 MPH on average in 2022 with a spin rate of 2349 RPM and a full inch more than the league average vertical drop. In 2023, his fastball was uncannily identical, stuff-wise, but it got hammered. The problem was his location.

Spin and movement can only help a pitcher so much when their fastball catches too much of the plate, which is what happened to Rodón in 2023. Opposing hitters' numbers against his fastball when thrown in the shadow or chase zones (as defined by Baseball Savant) were nearly identical to those in past years, but more of his pitches were left over the heart of the plate in 2023.

Location is usually the last thing to fully return after a long injury layoff, and whatever mechanical issues Rodón has can also likely be fixed by Matt Blake and the Yankees' coaching staff. Or at least, conventional wisdom would suggest that.

Which pitchers can be dangled for lineup help?

While major league teams can never have enough pitching, the Yankees' biggest need this offseason is an impact bat(s). There are a few options out there on the free agent market, but the most intriguing ones seem to be those waiting to be traded.

Considering how much upper minors pitching depth the Yankees have on their hands, it seems that it would be the optimal place to trade from. The question is, which arms will potential trade partners be interested in?

The rumors so far this offseason have the Yankees interested in Juan Soto, Brendan Donovan and/or Alec Burleson from the Cardinals, and Manuel Margot from the Rays. Considering the lack of control and the $12 million guaranteed to Margot, he likely wouldn't cost one of the Yankees' top arms.

But if the Yankees go after Soto, they'll need to pay up. Not only would they be trading for arguably the most valuable asset on the market, but they'll be dealing with Padres GM AJ Preller, who is no slouch in evaluating talent.

With Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, and Nick Martinez all opting out of their deals in San Diego, the Padres would likely be interested in someone like Schmidt, who could instantly slot in in the middle of their rotation and provide at least 150 innings.

If the Yankees decide to deal with the Cardinals instead, they could find themselves parting ways with some of their more controllable talent, such as Warren, Beeter, and/or Vásquez. The Cardinals are in more of a rebuild mode, so they might be inclined to take on major-league-ready pitchers who have yet to debut.

Of course, if the Yankees trade from their depth, they'll likely have to add some proven veteran talent. Perhaps Frankie Montas is brought back on a prove-it deal. Maybe they turn to a veteran like Wacha to fill those innings. The number of paths the front office could take is what creates intrigue, but they need to get it right.