3 Yankees free agents who will leave, and 2 who will return in 2024

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The list of Yankees who should be gone entering 2024 numbers in the double-digits, but the list of players who will be gone is a bit dicier.

Luckily, things are fairly straightforward when it comes to the team's free agent class. This isn't last offseason. Arson Judge is not on the market. Even Harrison Bader, initially thought to represent one of the Yankees' toughest free agency decisions, is already one team removed from New York's roster.

If the entire free agent class found new homes this offseason, it would barely make an emotional dent in the heart of most Yankee fans. That said, there are a few names still circling who appear more likely than not to return -- either on bounce-back deals or to provide stability and a bullpen backbone.

Don't shoot the messenger here. We're just telling you how this process is most likely to go. The Yankees are likelier to find marked improvements on the trade market this offseason than in free agency, and unless you enthusiastically support them dropping $200+ million on Cody Bellinger, a few shrewd deals will probably make you feel better anyway. Here's how we believe they'll treat their own free agents this offseason.

3 Yankees free agents who'll go, 2 who'll return for 2024

Yankees Free Agent Who Will Leave: Luis Severino

Notice how you haven't heard an ounce of Luis Severino chatter this offseason, but have already heard plenty of scuttlebutt about another Yankees free agent arm? Yeah. Pretty telling.

Severino's walk year was an abject nightmare, save for a two-start scoreless stretch against the Nationals and Tigers at the end of August that earned him one more Yankee Stadium salute. Typically, though, instead of mowing down opponents, he was more likely to view himself as baseball's worst pitcher, wrapping the year with a 6.65 ERA, 1.5 bWAR subtracted, and a painful injury that felt as if somebody had "shot" him (his words, not ours).

That was ultimately diagnosed as a "high-grade" left oblique strain, an injury that shouldn't linger into 2024, but ... with Severino, you just never know. Regardless of whether or not his injury timeline bleeds into next season, that will be some other team's concern.

Yankees Free Agent Who Will Leave: Keynan Middleton

The Yankees don't typically like to trade for players midseason, then let them walk at the conclusion of the campaign. If they're going to surrender valuable player assets in exchange for someone, then they're inclined to use their overflowing cups of money to make sure said rental sticks around.

With Middleton, though ...

The Yankees print bullpen arms, and are more likely than not to enter 2024 with a strong relief corps, even if we don't know many of the names who will comprise it yet. Middleton, 30 years old and coming off his strongest season, probably won't command a multi-year commitment, but will certainly earn a contract between $7-9 million for next season.

His 12 games with the Yankees featured 14.1 innings, seven hits, 17 Ks, and a 0.98 WHIP. His 1.88 tiny-sample-size ERA wasn't consistent with his FIP (3.26). He also overperformed his metrics with the White Sox, posting a 3.96 ERA/4.58 FIP.

And this was his strongest recent campaign. He's coming off a 5.29 ERA in Arizona in 2022, following up a 4.94 mark in 2021 in Seattle. If you can get him for a song, you do it, but ... any stretch commitment isn't worth it just to justify last summer's trade deadline. No matter how much he preferred the Yankees' culture to the White Sox.

Yankees Free Agent Who Will Leave: Isiah Kiner-Falefa

There was a time this season when it didn't feel crazy to suggest that Kiner-Falefa, who grew into a utility role at times in 2023 (while being forced to play the outfield!), could return on a universally enjoyed two-year deal at $7 million/per.

Now? That sounds pretty crazy to suggest.

IKF finished his season commensurate with his career norms, though he was encouraged to try lots of new things in the process (like the exotic flavors of left field!). A year after he posted an 84 OPS+ as the team's starting shortstop and spent the whole campaign being unnecessarily reviled by the fan base, he posted a 78 OPS+ this past season, hitting nearly 20 points lower (.261 to .242) in 30 fewer games.

Kiner-Falefa did everything asked of him and more in 2023. He occasionally sparkled defensively in the outfield, even though he never should've been there in the first place. He screamed with joy after realizing he wasn't being traded at the deadline, and earns bonus marks in the mind's eye for being a genuine fan of this team.

That said, while his 2022 performance under difficult circumstances deserved some more love, his 2023 performance (ducks) probably deserved some more hate. Sorry, man.

Yankees Free Agent Who Will Return: Frankie Montas

Remember what we said about the Yankees trying to squeeze juice from every player they've ever traded for? At this point, it would be an upset if the disappointing Montas doesn't return.

Everyone from Bryan Hoch to the wayward winds seem to be indicating that Montas will more than likely take a bounce back pact with the Yankees, hence the team's weird fascination with rushing back his rehab so that he could make a minor-league appearance and big-league relief stint before the end of the season.

There is, objectively, nothing wrong with signing Montas to a cheap, one-year deal and potentially receiving All-Star-level starting pitching in return. Unfortunately, it's hard to be optimistic in even receiving replacement-level starting pitching in exchange for their investment; Montas and his balky shoulder posted a 6.35 ERA in eight appearances with the Yankees during the 2022 regular season.

2023, though? 0.00 ERA. Clean sheet. Sparkling. Sky's the limit.

Yankees Free Agent Who Will Return: Wandy Peralta

To be wholly honest, we did not expect this to be the prevailing wisdom. Peralta spent the 2023 season skirting the Regression Gods, doing a slightly more dangerous high-wire act than normal. His 2022 season was exceptional, and his 2022 ALDS was legendary (he appeared in all five games), but his numbers didn't match up in his age-31/32 season. He managed to make it to the finish line with a 2.83 ERA and posted 1.4 bWAR, but his 5.05 FIP only rose as the campaign went on. He struggled to throw strikes, walking 30 in 54 innings pitched. He came down with a late-season injury, much like every other Yankee reliever.

The regression to the mean never hit, and we expected the Yankees would allow it to do so on someone else's dime. And yet, so far this offseason ... there's been a lot of talk about the bulldog-ish Peralta's intangible importance to the Yankees' bullpen. They don't have a lefty in tow who can adequately replace him; Matt Krook proved to very much not be up for the job last season.

Therefore, if the Yankees intend to contend again, it would be nice to have the good version of Peralta available. Brendan Kuty and Chris Kirschner settled on predicting a two-year deal and a return for the 32-year-old. We'll differ from them and predict a one-year deal with a mutual option. Either way, it feels like the Bombers are prepared to cross their fingers and hope his FIP drops.

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