It's beginning to look like the Yankees were wise not to trade for an ace

The New York Yankees needed to add an arm to the starting rotation over the offseason. Gerrit Cole and later Clarke Schmidt undergoing Tommy John surgery last year meant the Yankees were already running short, and Carlos Rodón's surprise elbow cleanup further thinned the herd, at least temporarily. Fans dreamed of aces, though Brian Cashman delivered Ryan Weathers at a surprisingly high cost.

So far, we've seen that Dillon Lewis, Brendan Jones, and company might not have been the losses we expected. But what about those aces? Freddy Peralta was the dream, even if the price didn't make sense. MacKenzie Gore was the expected pivot. Edward Cabrera, not Weathers, was the original preferred Marlins' starter.

New York has had the best starting rotation in the majors, and the weak link has been Luis Gil, not Weathers. It will get even better with Rodón and Cole on rehab assignments down in Somerset. Weathers has recovered from some early-season inconsistency to become a strong member of the unit. He's also proven so far that he was actually the best option.

Yankees made the right choice as Ryan Weathers outperforms other targets

With many of starters having made five or six starts to date, we're about 20% of the way through a full season's workload for these guys and can start taking the numbers seriously. Shockingly, Weathers, who was the least accomplished of the group coming into 2026, has been the best of the bunch so far.

As you can see, Weathers is consistently at the top across this array of metrics. We tried here to include a variety that isolates pitcher performance. On top of that, xFIP and SIERA are two of the best predictive metrics we have for a pitcher's future performance.

Weathers does very well here. He has the best ERA, but his xFIP and SIERA suggest it will be even better. He also owns, by far, the best walk rate and the second-best strikeout rate. That's the bulk of what's in his control, and he's performing like an ace.

Peralta has gotten better after a slow start, but he's struggled with efficiency, laboring for strikeouts and giving up a few too many free passes. He's settling in like a solid back-end arm, but given that he cost the Mets' No. 3 and No. 5 prospects in Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat, you'd hope for more.

Gore is the most interesting. His ERA is the worst, coming in at 4.35. However, his predictive metrics are second only to Weathers. Then again, he has the worst walk rate of the quartet by far. The biggest thing holding him back is his elevated home run rate, surrendering 1.45 HR/9. Excessive walks combined with frequent homers can lead to things unraveling quickly.

Finally, Weathers' former teammate, Cabrera, has the biggest disparity between actual results and expected performance. The 2.73 ERA looks nice and sparkly, but the 4.22 xFIP and 4.58 SIERA make him seem like a borderline fifth starter. His K/9 has fallen off a cliff from 9.81 last year to 6.67 so far in 2026, while his walks are still a touch elevated. He cost the Cubs their No. 1 overall prospect, and it looks like they're in for a world of pain sooner rather than later with the right-hander.

So, at least at this point, we owe Brian Cashman and the Yankees an apology. Weathers has been the best of the bunch, and while we weren't wild about giving up four prospects to get him, none of them were top guys in the system. Weathers fooled us with his poor spring, but now that the games count, he's been everything the Yankees have hyped him up to be.

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