We've entered the point in the offseason where it's all but a foregone conclusion that if the New York Yankees are going to make a big splash, it's going to come via trade. Front and center in those negotiations is Milwaukee Brewers ace Freddy Peralta.
The links between Peralta and the Yankees have been present all offseason, and allegedly talks are heating up. Of course, Peralta is a superb pitcher and a true front-of-the-rotation arm, so the competition is fierce.
Trade prices for starting pitchers have been astronomical this offseason. The Baltimore Orioles didn't help anyone with the enormous haul they sent to the Tampa Bay Rays for Shane Baz, and they aren't alone. Mike Burrows and Edward Cabrera also generated massive returns for their former clubs as they were shipped out to contenders.
Peralta is a different animal than those hurlers. That trio of arms brings projection and potential to the table. Peralta is an established ace who has proven to deliver results. While that might make him seemingly more expensive, it isn't the performance that's been driving prices to sky-high levels, but rather the years of team control. Entering his walk year, that should make Peralta more affordable then, right?
Rumored Freddy Peralta trade package could have Brewers asking Yankees for Spencer Jones plus a lot more
History has shown that aces in their walk years don't go for very much, no matter how good they are. Combined with the fact that the Yankees and Brewers have been willing trade partners before, with Devin Williams being sent to the Bronx for the reasonable sum of Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin, you'd think that this should be relatively easy.
It was just a couple of years ago that the two clubs almost came together for a Corbin Burnes deal, but it was the Yankees who reportedly balked at giving up Spencer Jones as the centerpiece of the trade.
Burnes, also in his final year of team control at the time, was ultimately sent to the Orioles for versatile left-handed pitcher DL Hall and slick fielding (and light hitting) infielder Joey Ortiz, the O's No. 7 and No. 8 prospects, respectively.
Truth be told, at the time of the trade, Burnes was a better pitcher than Peralta is now. With Milwaukee, he won the Cy Young in 2021, made three All-Star teams, and posted a 3.26 ERA over six seasons. In eight campaigns with the Brewers, Peralta has two All-Star selections and a 3.59 ERA.
However, according to Chris Kirschner of The Athletic (subscription required), it will take much more to pry Peralta away. First, Milwaukee wants a controllable starting pitcher (remember how valuable these types of players have become), such as Luis Gil or Will Warren. Kirschner goes on to say that a top pitching prospect like Elmer Rodriguez or Carlos Lagrange might also need to be included, before finally name-dropping minor league hitters such as Spencer Jones or Dillon Lewis. If Milwaukee preferred, perhaps one of those outfield prospects could be subbed out for Jasson Dominguez.
It's easy to overvalue Yankees prospects, but that is quite the ransom, especially considering what the negotiations for Burnes looked like and what he ended up going for once he was sent to Baltimore. It's also curious that Gil/Warren wouldn't hold more weight, because although neither is close to Peralta's level, when you consider an injury-plagued Shane Baz coming off a 4.87 ERA; an arm in Mike Burrows who has yet to top 100 major league innings in his career; and Edward Cabrera who struggles with walks and has only topped 100 innings in a single season once, all went for high prices, you'd think that Gil and/or Warren would hold more weight.
We're in a seller's market now, and with the number of teams sniffing around Peralta it's no wonder that the price tag is rising. The only question is, will the Yankees be willing to meet it?
