Incredibly pessimistic (but valid) viewpoint could turn Yankees fans against Cody Bellinger contract

The New York Yankees finally got their man, agreeing to a five-year, $162.5 million deal with Cody Bellinger. After a two-and-a-half-month staring contest, the Yankees only needed to make some very minor concessions (a couple of opt outs, and $2.5 million tacked on to their "final" offer) to get the star outfielder to sign on the dotted line.

Bellinger wanted at least seven years and an AAV in excess of $37 million, and instead, he settled at New York's red line at five years and taking home $32.5 million per season. The Yankees seem like big winners here, right? After all, they held (mostly) firm and got their primary target on their terms, even when the alternatives not only dried up, but threatened to send shockwaves that would upend their leverage.

Not everyone feels that way, however, and there are some grave concerns that even at this length and for this money, the Yankees vastly overpaid.

Fans are divided on the Yankees' deal for Cody Bellinger for valid reasons

It wasn't that long ago that $30 million was the price one paid for a superstar. Aaron Judge scored $40 million per year (for nine years) from the Yankees in December of 2022, and while his deal was nearly twice as long, he was coming off a 62-homer campaign where he was literally Babe Ruth reincarnated.

The length of the deal matters, but are we really to believe that Bellinger is roughly 80% the player that Judge is, as his AAV suggests?

Bellinger has an MVP in his trophy case, but that was from a lifetime ago. Over the last six years, the 2017 NL Rookie of the Year has been a wildly inconsistent player. The 2020 shoulder injury he sustained in the playoffs led to a two-year tailspin that ended with the Dodgers non-tendering him. While he's widely been seen as a phoenix rising from the ashes since 2023, there have been some real underlying concerns.

Just take a look at his precipitous decline in hard hit rate since 2019:

That is concerning, and some of his better years look like mirages as a result. For example, Bellinger's 2023 line of .307/.356/.525 was largely seen as his rebirth, but the expected stats paint a very different picture. Based on the quality of his contact, his xBA was .266, and his xSLG was 95 points lower than his actual, coming in at .430. Put it all together, his xwOBA of .328 (54th percentile) was significantly lower than his .370 actual mark.

That expected performance lines up perfectly with his 2024 campaign. He slashed .266/.325/.426, leading to the Cubs' desperation to dump his salary. Last year, Bellinger once again outperformed his expected stats, with his .272 batting average coming in nearly 20 points higher than his .254 xBA, and his .480 SLG being 50 points better than his .430 xSLG. At what point does this catch up with him?

Bellinger defenders will point to how his swing is a picture-perfect fit for Yankee Stadium. They're not wrong. Despite the poor hard-hit rates and below-average exit velocity, Bellinger pulls a lot of balls in the air, so he'll take advantage of some cheapies thanks to the short porch. But there are 81 road games to worry about, too.

The home-road splits for Bellinger were very stark last season. The 30-year-old posted a .909 OPS at home and a .715 mark on the road.

Truth be told, as an offensive performer, 2024 seems like the best baseline of what to expect for him moving forward. That year, he posted a 108 wRC+ and 2.1 fWAR. If he doesn't opt out, things could get even worse as he ages and his bat slows.

A roughly 2-WAR player is above average, but not a star. FanGraphs estimates the cost of 1 WAR at roughly $8 million, so if Bellinger consistently produces 2 WAR per season, he'll be worth about $16 million annually. He'll be paid twice that, which wouldn't be such a big deal if it weren't for the Yankees' budget-conscious nature over the past few years. If this contract prevents them from pursuing meaningful upgrades in the years to come, it will be a move that they live to regret.