Even FanGraphs knows how bad Anthony Volpe experience will be for 2026 Yankees

After three years and no progress (maybe even regression), it's hard to find someone in the greater Tri-State area who is optimistic about Anthony Volpe's prognosis. Even the New York Yankees general manager, Brian Cashman, an ardent Volpe defender in the past, has sent mixed messages with regard to the optimism the organization has regarding a Volpe breakout in 2026.

Outsiders, like Alex Rodriguez, have doubled down on the pessimism aimed at the once top prospect, though he lays much of the blame for Volpe's stagnation at the Yankees' feet.

If you take emotion out of it and focus on just the data, what is a reasonable prediction for Volpe in 2026? FanGraphs' Steamer projections annually attempt to create exactly that picture, and this year's results aren't pretty.

FanGraphs' Steamer projections peg Yankees' shortstop Anthony Volpe as one of the worst players at his position in 2026

Out of the top 30 shortstops in Steamer's projections for 2026, Volpe ranks 27th in fWAR, coming in at 2.1. The 24-year-old is projected to slash .234/.299/.403, which is good for a 96 wRC+, marking a decent, though not substantial enough, improvement over his 2025 line of .212/.272/.391/83 wRC+.

The most optimistic of Volpe supporters will cite the torn labrum in his left shoulder that he played through in 2025 as a reason to believe that things will be different in 2026, but aside from a slight lift in offensive performance, the main area in which Steamer accounts for that injury is in the "games played" category, predicting just 106 contests for Volpe.

None of this should give you the warm and fuzzies, and the Yankees' insistence on not adding meaningful competition for Volpe beyond the light-hitting Jose Caballero should concern you.

Caballero looked like a world beater compared to Volpe, posting an .828 OPS after arriving in New York in a deadline deal with the Tampa Bay Rays, but it should be noted that the sample for that offensive outburst was just 95 plate appearances, hardly enough to draw meaningful conclusions.

In reality, Caballero's greatest value comes from his ability to play solid defense at a multitude of positions while creating havoc on the basepaths, so to that end, tying him solely to shortstop might not have the positive net impact one would hope for.

Instead, it looks like we're going to be in for another rough season from Volpe. The biggest improvement, per Steamer, seems to come from his glove work, with his projected 6.2 defensive run value representing a large increase from 2025's error-fueled 0.3 mark.

We've seen Volpe play above-average defense before, so calling for that isn't exactly going out on a limb, but the lack of significant offensive improvement still has Volpe as a liability overall, and one has to wonder ... at what point would the Yankees pull the plug?

It doesn't seem that we're there yet, but if things don't get better in 2026, Brian Cashman's softening in defense of Volpe could mean that this is his last chance to prove he belongs.

Yankees fans would love to be proven wrong, but most believe Volpe's ceiling is what Steamer is projecting for him in 2026, which, if it comes to fruition, should spell the end of Volpe in pinstripes.