Blue Jays' nightmarish 2026 start has Yankees fans right about World Series run

After winning the AL East tie-breaker and eliminating the New York Yankees from postseason play, the Toronto Blue Jays became public enemy No. 1 in the Bronx. Their aggressive offseason made them into a boogeyman.

On paper, the Yankees' run-it-back strategy looked woefully misguided, as at least one projection system forecasted a nightmare scenario for New York, predicting that once again, Toronto would reign supreme while the Yankees fell down the standings.

Fortunately, the games are played on fields and not paper, and now that actual baseball is happening, it looks as if all the consternation was for nothing. The Blue Jays have stumbled out of the gate. While they swept the Athletics to open the year, they went 1-5 over six games against two of 2025's worst teams, the Colorado Rockies and the Chicago White Sox. Now they're taking on the Los Angeles Dodgers in a World Series rematch, and risk falling further behind in the early going.

It's one thing to start slow, but Toronto has also suffered a litany of injuries, some of which are severe, that will impact them. In their starting rotation, they've lost Trey Yesavage, Cody Ponce, Shane Bieber, and Jose Berrios. Yeasavage is suffering from a shoulder impingement, which, depending on the severity, could cost him a couple of months. Ponce is done for the year with an ACL injury. Bieber is dealing with right elbow inflammation, which could be a major concern after he was limited to just seven starts last season after recovering from Tommy John surgery.

On the offensive side of things, Alejandro Kirk is suffering from a thumb fracture that could cause him issues even after he returns from the IL, and Anthony Santander's labrum tear has his future cloudy If he does return in 2026, it won't be until season's end.

More importantly, it might be time to consider that the Jays aren't as good as they've been made out to be. If that were true when they were at full strength, then they're even more diminished now with all the injuries.

Yankees might realize the Blue Jays aren't as ferocious as they once thought

While it seemed like the Blue Jays were a juggernaut last year, it might have actually just been a case of all the stars aligning. It wasn't a record-setting swing, but their 2025 roster was largely the same as the 2024 unit that went 74-88. A 20-game swing in the win column year-over-year is substantial and should raise questions about sustainability.

For example, George Springer posted a combined .705 OPS from 2023 through 2024, but shot up to a .959 OPS in what was his age-35 season in 2025. The club as a whole rose from a collective .703 OPS in 2024 (18th in the MLB) to a .761 mark in 2025 (third). Now in 2026, they've fallen back to a .661 OPS, which once again ranks 18th.

They spent a lot of money over the offseason, but it's questionable as to whether or not they actually got better. Bo Bichette left, and Kazuma Okamoto came in, for instance. We'll need to see Okamoto over a longer stretch, but it's hard to see him being the better player right now.

Most of the money they spent went to Dylan Cease. He's been good to start the year, but he's alternated top-of-the-rotation performances with 4.50+ ERA showings over the last several years. Over time, he might not prove to be worth the investment.

Even if Toronto regains its swagger and goes on a run, it might come too late. Games in April count just the same as those in September, and if they drop too many before the cavalry comes off the IL, they might find the gap being too big to close. The Yankees shouldn't disregard the Blue Jays entirely, but maybe they aren't the bully we once feared they'd be.