ZiPS projected AL East Standings look like a Yankees' nightmare scenario

New York Yankees pitchers and catchers are scheduled to report to Tampa on Feb. 12, and barring a drastic change the spring will kick off with the roster looking very much the same as it did last season.

Making that claim has drawn some ire. Brian Cashman insists that this collection isn't just running it back. His logic? Gerritt Cole will be back at some point. The fringe players he acquired, like Angel Chivilli and Ryan Weathers, can transform the pitching staff despite having no track record of MLB success. Last year's trade deadline acquisitions apparently count as new pieces, too.

Some have even taken it a step further. Yankees announcer and commentator Michael Kay agrees with Cashman's assessment, doubling down on the fact that New York won 94 games last year and therefore must be even better in 2026.

To quote Jeff Bridges in The Big Lebowski, "Yeah, well, you know, that's just like, uh, your opinion, man."

What really matters is what the data says, and for that we have projection systems like ZiPS to help us cut through the noise. What it predicts for the Yankees in 2026 isn't pretty.

ZiPS projections for 2026 AL East Standings confirm Yankees haven't done nearly enough this winter

The short version of how ZiPS works is that it first creates player projections based on the past few seasons of performance, applies an aging curve formula, and attempts to account for injuries to create a stat line and value for each player on a team's roster. Then, it runs a million different simulations to figure out the win-loss records for each team. Plug everything into an algorithm, and you wind up with the projected results. Here is how things stand as of January 29:

So there you have it. Based on the projections from all of these simulations, the Yankees finish fourth in the division, winning seven fewer games than last season. So much for this being a 94-win team that got better.

It should be noted that despite the poor finish, ZiPS still sees New York having a 60.3% chance at making the playoffs. Even more encouraging (odd?) is the fact that the projection system sees the club as being more likely to win the World Series than either Boston or Toronto. The Yankees have a 5.4% chance to win it all, while the Red Sox come in at 4.9% and the Blue Jays at 4.8%. Strangely, the Orioles have the best chance at 5.8%.

As its creator, Dan Szymborski, notes in his piece, this is all subject to change. There could be developments during spring training that change the way we think about certain players. There could be key injuries. Moves can still be made.

However, this is an approximation of where we are today with the offseason drawing to a close. What it tells us is that after tying with the Blue Jays atop the division last year, the Yankees have fallen behind. They've not only fallen back from Toronto, but also have been surpassed by Boston and Baltimore. All three of those rivals have made significant plays to improve their roster. The Yankees have just been running in place.

This doesn't mean things will play out as projected, and ZiPS will run more simulations as we move closer to Opening Day, but it's a more scientific look at New York's position within the division, and it should hold more weight than the opinion of the GM who has an inherent bias or a broadcaster who is an employee of the team.

Falling behind the Blue Jays stings, but it is understandable. Getting passed by the Red Sox should have your primal rage ready to explode. Being lapped by the Orioles? Well, that's where the true nightmare begins.