Baseball America's breakout Yankees prospect might not have fully broken out yet

When it comes to prospects, the breakout truly comes where the tools begin to translate into production. For some, the rubber never really meets the road, while others seem to hit the ground running. The list of the "next big thing" in New York Yankees prospect land is pretty long.

Despite coming in at No. 22 on MLB Pipeline's 2025 mid-season farm system rankings, the Yankees have several youngsters who could help the unit soar in 2026. This year's first-round pick, 19-year-old Dax Kilby, could be one of those catalysts after a scorching hot start to his pro career. Any number of talented young arms, ranging from Bryce Cunningham to Ben Hess to Henry Lalane could be the next rising star as well.

Yet the folks over at Baseball America (subscription required) have a different pick for the Baby Bomber most likely to break out in 2026, and he's a player who some may have thought arrived already in 2025. That player is 22-year-old outfielder Dillon Lewis, a forgotten 13th-round pick from 2024.

Dillon Lewis put on a show in 2025, but bigger things could be in store for the young Yankees farmhand

Lewis arrived without much fanfare in 2024, jumping from Queen's University of Charlotte to Single-A Tampa for a 14-game cameo following the draft, where he slashed .250/.304/.385 with one homer. There was a lot of rawness to his game, and the jump from a tiny program to the pros is a big one.

Therefore, it wouldn't have been a surprise if he struggled during his first full season of action in 2025, but instead the unheralded youngster began to flash some loud tools.

Lewis began the year at Tampa, playing 46 games and slashing .250/.323/.477 with nine dingers. His .227 ISO showed he has some real pop, while his 13 steals in 14 attempts showed off his wheels.

The surprising start quickly got him the call to High-A Hudson Valley. One would expect Lewis to struggle after being promoted so quickly, but he held his own and then some. The toolsy youngster would add 13 homers to his ledger while replicating his performance on the basepaths with another 13 steals, getting caught just once. The total line was a bit of a mixed bag at .228/.320/.426, but his 121 wRC+ shows he was still significantly more productive than the average hitter at the level.

Here's where things get really interesting. The batting average was really the only thing that fell off. To a degree, that's natural for an inexperienced player receiving a mid-season promotion. Typically, players in Lewis's shoes will see their average take a hit as their strikeouts rise as they try to get their sea legs at the higher level.

In Lewis's case, the opposite happened. He cut his strikeout rate from 28.2% in Single-A to 20.8% in High-A while also increasing his walk rate a tick from 9.2% to 10.8%. That wasn't a fluke either, but rather seemed to be the result of a concerted effort.

Lewis swung less (51.1% to 45%) while marginally bumping his contact rates from 72.7% to 73.5%. He watched a lot more called strikes go by (13.7% versus 18%), while swinging and missing less, as shown by a 2% dip in his swinging strike rate.

Essentially, he started letting pitchers' pitches go more often, focusing his hacks on balls he knew he could do damage on. Lewis also pulled the ball in the air more at High-A, which is usually a recipe for good results. The biggest factor bringing down his batting average was simply luck, with his BABIP dropping from .313 to .254.

Lewis's combined line was .237/.321/.445 with 22 homers and 26 steals. Given where he came from and his brief 2024 showing, many would have already considered that a breakout. Baseball America thinks there's more in the tank, and with the maturation of his approach moving from Tampa to Hudson Valley, it's easy to see why. Lewis could be in for a big 2026 and could be one of the system's next rising stars as a result.