3 dark horse teams that can steal Aaron Judge from Yankees
Aaron Judge = free agent. New York Yankees = not effective in free agency. Should be a fun one, guys! Though many analysts and pundits expect Judge to return to the Bronx, Yankees fans won’t believe it until he signs on the dotted line and is part of the 2023 Opening Day lineup at the Stadium.
No, not the San Francisco Giants’ Opening Day lineup at the Stadium. The other one.
There are some potential big players that are expected to be involved who could outbid the Yankees on the open market. The Giants, Chicago Cubs, New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers are the usual suspects up until this point. Some have even floated the LA Angels, Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays — all of whom feel very unlikely to actually make it happen.
But what about others waiting in the shadows? Other contenders/up-and-coming rosters with plenty of money to spend thanks to a flexible payroll? Judge is the top name on the market and is the likely AL MVP for the 2022 season. Though some teams may not be willing to offer up massive long-term contracts due to the fact he’s entering his age-31 season, some could afford ridiculous short-term AAVs that might attract the slugger.
Who might those teams be? Some have been mentioned in passing throughout the year, but none have necessarily been taken seriously. Perhaps it’s time to do that as we get closer and closer to free agency erupting.
3 dark horse teams that could steal Aaron Judge from Yankees in free agency
3. Texas Rangers
Even after splurging $500+ million last offseason, the Texas Rangers enter 2023 with just $92 million guaranteed on their payroll. Why stop now?
Their primary need continues to be pitching, but the market isn’t exactly robust with top talent. There are a few notable names and then a big drop-off. Perhaps that’s a trade market endeavor for the Rangers.
As for free agency, their expenditures on Corey Seager ($325 million) and Marcus Semien ($175 million) kickstarted things last winter. They don’t have a full-time right fielder. They have a vacancy on the defensive side of the ball and an obvious fit in the middle of the order for Judge.
With only two long-term commitments in Seager and Semien (and if you want to count Jon Gray, who’s making $14 million AAV through 2025, fine), the Rangers have the financial flexibility to go above and beyond for Judge if they really wanted to. That allows them to also go short-term-heavy on potential options like Clayton Kershaw, Jacob deGrom and/or Carlos Rodón. And don’t forget the no state income tax!
Watch out for Texas.
2. Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos has built a contender for the next decade. He’s signed Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris and Spencer Strider through at least 2026. Vaughn Grissom, Kyle Wright and William Contreras are under club control for a while, too.
Isn’t there a world where the Braves shift Acuña to left field (or trade him) to make room for a massive Judge deal? Then rotate the DH with those two and Marcell Ozuna? There’s also the issue of re-signing Dansby Swanson. If the Braves do that, then maybe it’ll be harder for them to bring Judge into the fold.
As of right now, Atlanta has $195 million committed to the 2023 payroll, which will drop a few million if they non-tender anybody or if Jake Odorizzi opts out of his contract. Let’s call it $190 million. Swanson’s going to cost at least $20 million per year. Judge will be in the $35-40 million range. One of those guys can easily fit into this picture.
If Swanson goes, Grissom takes over at short. Judge replaces Swanson’s impact and the Braves arguably get better. But what about both?
The Braves had the fourth-highest attendance of any team in MLB this season (they averaged 38,600 fans per game and had over three million fans walk through the gates at Truist Park). That’s only behind the Dodgers, Cardinals and Yankees — with both LA and New York consistently being in the $240 million payroll range year after year.
What if the Braves went all in, signed both, and leaped the luxury tax threshold for the first time? They’d pay an extra few million in taxes in 2023 and 2024, but by 2025 guys like Charlie Morton ($20 million), Ozuna ($18 million), Travis d’Arnaud ($8 million), Eddie Rosario ($9 million), Collin McHugh ($6 million) and others will fully be off the books (some might be gone after 2024, too).
That’ll allow the Braves to exercise some caution as the tax bills pile up, and they might be able to reset with seven core players. Don’t put it past Anthopoulos, all we’re sayin’.
1. Seattle Mariners
Robinson Cano 2.0?! Not quite! The Mariners just snapped their two-decade playoff drought and nearly (yes, nearly) took down the Houston Astros in the ALDS. They blew two late-game leads and then lost a 1-0 marathon after 18 innings. They were very much in it every step of the way.
With just $92 million committed to 2023 (that figure could be ~$130 million with arbitration costs and contract options), their pitching already taken care of, Julio Rodriguez locked up for the long haul, and a number of team-friendly deals helping them get by, adding Judge to the fold is doable and realistic. And there’s the allure of being on a team that’s built for the future (at a ballpark he seemingly always drills moonshots out of).
There’s an immediate vacancy in right field with Mitch Haniger hitting free agency. Let’s say the Mariners keep everybody and their payroll without Judge is $143.6 million (per Baseball-Reference). They have further room to spend, with the first luxury tax threshold all the way at $230 million. They’re not losing a single impact player until after 2024 (unless you count Haniger and Adam Frazier for this offseason, potentially).
The AL West also runs through Houston, but the Astros’ time won’t be forever. The Mariners threatened in 2022. Seattle has a diverse set of offensive players, and one more huge bat could propel them into the top 10 or even the top five in MLB.
This puts Judge much closer to home in Northern California, too. That’s going to be a factor, whether Yankees fans accept it or not. It’s all going to come down to whether or not the Yankees miff him in negotiations the second time around.