Yankees: 3 bold predictions for 2021 season on Opening Day

2. Luis Severino Will Start Game 2 of the ALDS

The Yankees reinforced their pitching depth this offseason by importing a trio of what-ifs: Jameson Taillon from Pittsburgh, Corey Kluber from Eric Cressey’s lab, and Domingo German, who shook off his rust immediately this spring.

On the surface, it feels like the Yanks brought in three different possible No. 3 starters, and if that’s where things settle, you know what? That’s completely fine. That’ll work.

But we’ll still place our bets on the midseason addition of Luis Severino as the final shot in the arm that officially revitalizes this rotation. In fact, we’re willing to still claim he has the second-highest upside of any pitcher in this mix, and will be starting the team’s second playoff game when all is said and done.

Midway through completing a rehab that manager Aaron Boone tentatively called too strong after his first trip to the mound in March, Severino is far ahead of schedule, and will only be held back for his own sake. In many ways, this too gives him an advantage over the Yankees “incumbents” who’ll be starting their seasons this week.

Every pitcher the Yankees currently employ, from Taillon to Deivi Garcia, will be on some form of innings restriction after a shortened 2020 season messed with the entire league’s preparation period. Severino’s clock will be starting far later, and it will be much less complex to limit his innings cap this season; even if the team wants to stop him at 100 or so, he should be able to go full bore into October without taking any time in the bullpen.

If his rehab’s been as successful as we’ve been told it has, the Yanks will be getting their second-highest-ceiling starter back midseason. Sevy’s been dealing with something or another since midway through 2018, but that year began with a series of untouchable outings. In the first half? 10-2, 2.74, 110 whiffs in 92 innings. If we even see 2/3 of that dominance in his first summer back, he’ll likely have earned the second spot in the postseason pecking order.

1. Yankees Will Win East…But Red Sox Will Pass Rays, Jays

Look, what can I say? I know how to call an annoying Red Sox season when I see it. I feel them in my bones.

The New York Yankees have a better offense than the Boston Red Sox, though it’s closer than you may think. Even in a shortened 2020, the Yanks outpaced Boston in runs scored (fourth in MLB, Boston finished 11th), but the Sox got the Bombers in average, finishing third in the entire league (.265) while the Yankees finished 14th (.247).

And Boston was terrible in 2020! Just patently awful! “Fourth overall pick” bad.

This year, they haven’t made any great strides, though every pickup to pass through the gates at Fenway serves a purpose. Kiké Hernández and Marwin Gonzalez provide versatility. Hunter Renfroe (and a full season from rookie Bobby Dalbec) brings increased power. Garrett Richards is a good-not-great starter who will wow you if you catch him on the wrong day. JD Martinez has access to the video room again, which should (totally organically) bring his numbers back up to snuff.

But more importantly, premier Yankees antagonist Alex Cora is back. The captain of the ship has returned, and of his two seasons at the helm, one was a 108-win masterclass built on a foundation of … well, you be the judge. Cora alone is good for a heightened tension in the rivalry, and while we’ll never know exactly what went wrong in his 2019 denouement, the extremely icky-feeling re-hire after his 2020 firing for cheating allegations in Houston (and additional unrelated alleged incidents in Boston) will lead to a dead cat bounce in the AL East.

I do not believe Boston is a division-winning team (though stranger things have happened last decade in 2013). But I do believe in them being feistier than anticipated. The Tampa Bay Rays have attempted to sell us this spring on their machine continuing to work, even though the offense produced dreck all October long and got lucky time and time again before the franchise sent two of their three top starters packing. The injury concerns have already begun in Toronto; closer Kirby Yates is gone for the year, starter Robbie Ray has an elbow bruise (and is somehow essential), and everything but the Jays’ lineup is held together with string and mud (George Springer is also battling an oblique already, FYI).

It’s not a truly satisfying Yankees season unless they A) win a World Series and B) have to really battle past a far-too-annoying Red Sox team to get there. This year’s group of Bostonians is the second-place team that will give the Bombers the most trouble on their road to capturing the AL East, something they will do by … let’s say seven games (95 wins). It’ll all come down to the pitching depth, something the rest of the division wasn’t able to piece together.

Yankees: 3 NYY players most impacted by Luke Voit surgery news

Luke Voit will miss the first month and a half (at least) of the Yankees' season while rehabbing his knee, and these three players will have to change.