Yankees: Projecting contracts for NYY free agents during Winter Meetings

Projecting James Paxton’s Contract Details

1 year, $12 million

Now, is that too rich for the Yankees’ blood? Somehow, Paxton has probably become the second-most-likely Yankee pitcher to return, slightly behind Tanaka and well behind Sonny Gray.

Even with the significant baked-in injury risk, is he that much riskier a proposition than Smyly, someone who didn’t pitch in the majors in 2017 or 2018? Paxton’s avoidance of Tommy John means that he’s still due a large sum this offseason, but, well…since he hasn’t had the surgery yet, he still may have the surgery in the coming years. And nobody’s going to want to pay for more than one year of the lefty while they’re still examining his arm like a ticking clock.

We projected a slight raise on the lefty starter baseline, but nothing significantly different than what was foreseen a month ago.

Projecting Brett Gardner’s Contract Details

1 year, $3.5 million (w/ incentives)

Brett Gardner’s declined club option was for $10 million, and it’s safe to say he won’t approach that total, especially with the Yankees.

Unfortunately, Gardy doesn’t seem to be any contender’s top priority. And does he really want to spend the final year or so of his career with, say, the Texas Rangers for a slight pay bump?

We still think all roads lead to Gardner in the Bronx until his retirement, and the Yankees eventually reunite with him after the LeMahieu chase has shaken out. $3.5 million or so sounds right, but the team may include some plate appearance incentives to seem less insulting.

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