Yankees ALCS: Which team has the advantage after the Game 4 rainout?

After Game 4 of the ALCS between the Yankees and Astros was rained out Wednesday night which team has the advantage for the remainder of the series?

When the series resumes Thursday night in the Bronx for Game 4 the Yankees will have the edge on paper with Masahiro Tanaka set to face off against Zack Greinke once again. In Game 1, Tanaka outpitched Greinke and shut down the Astros lineup over six innings, facing the minimum in the Yankees dominant 7-0 win.

Having Tanaka on the mound for Game 4 is absolutely huge for the Yankees because now they won’t have to deploy their bullpen for the entire game like they had planned on doing before Wednesday’s rainout. Tanaka will be well-rested and ready to go entering his start after he only threw 68 pitches on Saturday. As will the entire Yankees bullpen after the day off on Wednesday, but moving forward there is definitely cause for concern.

If the Yankees win one of the next two games at home they’re guaranteed to return to Houston for a Game 6 which means they’ll have to play at least three days in a row and potentially four if the series goes seven. It’s been well documented how no relievers in the Yankee pen have pitched on three consecutive days all season, but if this team is going to advance to the World Series some of them are probably going to have to do just that.

That’s somewhat concerning but Aaron Boone did a great job of resting his high leverage guys throughout September to make sure that they were ready to take on a bigger workload this postseason. However, outside of Tanaka, it’s hard to trust any of the Yankees starters to pitch deep into a game so the bullpen is likely going to be used a ton which could lead to some wear and tear and ineffectiveness on the mound.

As for Houston, Wednesday’s rainout not only means Greinke will start Game 4 but now Justin Verlander will start Game 5 on normal rest Friday night. Prior to the rainout, the expectation was we’d see rookie Jose Urquidy start. Having Verlander pitch in Game 5, potentially with a chance to win the series was a no brainer for AJ Hinch. Although if they don’t win the next two games and split or come back to Houston trailing 3-2 he’s going to have a tough decision to make and that’s whether or not to start they’re incredible ace Gerrit Cole on three days rest in Game 6.

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That didn’t work out for Verlander when he did it against Tampa Bay. As phenomenal as Cole has been this October there’s no guarantee he’ll do any better.

Now if the Astros come back home after losing these next two games it’s a safe bet that Cole will start Game 6 because they’re not going to pitch the rookie Urquidy with their season on the line. If they’re up 3-2 they might so than they’d have Cole on four days rest if the series goes to a Game 7 on Sunday.

Clearly, the Astros still have the starting pitching edge and probably won’t have to use their pen as much as the Yankees will if they’re starters do their jobs. However, if they struggle and the Yankee offense starts to break out the Astros are also likely going to have to pitch some of their relievers three or four days in a row which would benefit New York.

Until we see how things play out tonight it’s really hard to predict who has the advantage for the remainder of the series. Right now the edge goes to the Astros because they have a 2-1 lead but that could change very quickly if the Yankee offense breaks out tonight and Tanaka pitches at least seven innings to help them win. It’s not going to be easy but if they can do that it changes the whole dynamic for the rest of the series.