Yankees take stranglehold of ALDS; history with Jake Odorizzi is ominous

The New York Yankees have taken a 2-0 stranglehold on the ALDS as the series moves to Minnesota for a potential sweep.

On Saturday, the Yankees exploded for a seven-run third inning en route to an 8-2 victory. In the first two games of the ALDS, the Yankees have won comfortably, dominating the Twins through superior starting pitching, a much better ‘pen, and a lineup that’s firing on all cylinders.

Game 3 on Monday night in Minnesota will feature a compelling pitching matchup. The Yanks will give the ball to Luis Severino in the hopes that the young ace can send them to the ALCS. The Twins will task their All-Star veteran, Jake Odorizzi, with keeping their season alive.

In a season in which he was named to the All-Star team for the first time in his career, Odorizzi went 15-7 with a 3.51 ERA across 30 starts. Sporting a career-best 10.07 K/9, 3.36 K/BB ratio, 3.36 FIP, and 0.9 HR/9, Odorizzi has been the ace of a 101-win Twins team.

While the Yankees have dominated the ALDS up to this point, the matchup against Odorizzi presents a slight pause. Odorizzi’s career numbers against the Yanks are a Jekyll and Hyde-type of situation. In 17 career starts against New York, the 29-year-old is 7-9 with a 4.86 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 8.41 K/9 ratio. If you’re a Twins fan, these are not inspiring numbers.

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It seems as though when the Yankees face “good Odorizzi,” he’s exceptional, and when they face “bad Odorizzi,” he’s terrible. In seven wins against the Yankees, Odorizzi has a 2.27 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP. How about in the nine losses? These numbers change to a 7.03 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP.

The Yanks don’t want any part of “good Odorizzi.” Further troubling is the overall career futility of the presumed Yankee lineup against the former Tampa Bay Ray.

• DJ LeMahieu: .200 BA (1-for-5) with 1 BB and 1 K
• Aaron Judge: .300 BA (3-for-10) with 1 HR, 1 RBI, 3 BB and 5 K
• Brett Gardner: .188 BA (6-for-32) with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 5 BB and 3 K
• Edwin Encarnacion: .186 BA (8-for-43) with 2 HR, 8 RBI, 5 BB and 6 K
• Giancarlo Stanton: .273 BA (3-for-11) with 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 BB and 5 K
• Gary Sanchez: .250 BA (3-for-12) with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 4 BB and 5 K
• Gleyber Torres: .111 BA (1-for-9) with 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB and 3 K
• Didi Gregorius: .160 BA (4-for-25) with 4 RBI and 5 K
• Gio Urshela: .500 BA (1-for-2)

Overall, the projected starting lineup is batting .201 (30-for-149) with seven home runs, 22 RBIs, 21 BB and 33 K’s against Odorizzi.

Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez have decent numbers against him, but they’ve also racked up 15 strikeouts in 33 total at-bats.

As for D.J. LeMahieu, Brett Gardner, Edwin Encarnacion, Gleyber Torres and Didi Gregorius, they’ve driven in 15 runs in the first two games, and are a combined 20-for-114 (.175) against Odorizzi. The Yankee bench doesn’t provide many inspirational options, either:

• Tyler Wade:  Has never faced Odorizzi
• Luke Voit: .000 BA (0-for-5) with 1 BB and 2 SO
• Austin Romine: .333 BA (1-for-3) with 1 RBI and 1 SO
• Cameron Maybin: .455 BA (5-for-11) with 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB and 2 SO

Does this mean that the Yankees are doomed in Game 3? Of course not. Odorizzi left a September 24 start early due to hamstring tightness and missed his next outing. He may not be 100 percent healthy, and even if he is, there may be some rust after a 12-day layoff.

Also, the Bombers have shown an ability to tattoo the Minnesota ‘pen. In the series, the ‘pen has allowed 11 runs on nine hits and 11 walks in just 10 innings. If the Yankees can knock Odorizzi out of the game by the middle innings, it doesn’t bode well for the Twins.

Despite their struggles against Odorizzi, the Yankees have shown an ability to inflate his pitch count.

On May 4, Odorizzi shut the Yanks out while only allowing just two hits. However, he lasted six innings due to four walks and eight strikeouts. On July 24, the righty only went four innings after allowing 10 hits and striking out seven batters.

The projected Yankee lineup has 33 strikeouts against Odorizzi in 149 at-bats and has totaled 21 walks. Even if Odorizzi is on his A-game, there’s a good chance that he’s gone by the sixth inning.

My prediction

Odorizzi will pitch as the All-Star veteran showed during the 2019 regular-season. Unfortunately for Minnesota, it won’t be enough. The Yankees will get to the Twins ‘pen yet again, in the later innings, to secure a trip to the ALCS. The final score: 6-4.