Yankees: 2019 Spring Training preview and what to keep an eye on

The outfield

After a record-setting 267 home runs hit as a team last year, it’s safe to say there’s plenty to be hopeful for at the plate in 2019.

Giancarlo Stanton is in the prime of his career. A 29-year-old, 6-foot-6 outfielder with over 300 home runs on his résumé (59 in one season), an MVP award, four All-Star Game appearances and a 39 career WAR.

The WAR might not look too impressive on the surface, but in relation to his at-bats, he’s hitting at a similar impact level as HOF third baseman Chipper Jones.

Stanton’s numbers took a dip from his 2017 NL MVP campaign, but he still hit 38 home runs in 2018 with a .266/.343/.509 slash line; while showing he can stay healthy enough to play 150+ games in a season.

But Stanton’s numbers only look low because its consequential to a season of stats that Stanton may never achieve again.

Take a look at his average hitting rates before and the 2018 season:

• Pre-2018: BA (.268), OBP (.360), SLG (.554), H/AB (.268), HR/AB (.075), SO/AB (.319)
• 2018: BA (.266), OBP (.343), SLG (.509), H/AB (.266), HR/AB (.062), SO/AB (.342)

There are some marginal differences between Stanton’s first eight seasons and his last campaign that show he should rebound with a strong performance in 2019.

On the flip side, 29-year-old Aaron Hicks is coming off the best season of his career. Twenty-seven home runs to go along with stellar defensive play proved just how solid of a player Hicks is. However, his OBP was over 100 points higher than his BA.

Hicks has shown his complexity as a ballplayer, on a star-studded team; making the Yankee outfield feel a bit more crowded than it really is.

The rest of the outfield

Aaron Judge is the new face of Yankee baseball. A massive power hitting outfielder that rose through the Yankees’ farm system just like many of his teammates — ready to rocket baseballs out of the Bronx like tennis balls.

Faced with a severe hand injury last season, Judge was only able to play 112 games but still managed to hit 27 home runs. His .278/.392/.528 slash line suggests his season wasn’t all that bad.

Judge’s 2017 rookie campaign was one to remember, but not one to follow up. Not many players hit 52 home runs, never mind rookies. Topped with a .422 OBP and 114 RBI pushed Judge to a second-place MVP finish (behind Jose Altuve).

A healthy Judge is a scary sight at the plate. The potential for 50 home runs is present every season.

Brett Gardner is likely to take a veteran role on a young Yankee team. After having the lowest BA of his career since his first season in the majors, Gardner has been able to combat the aging process by adding a little extra pop to his bat.

Seventy-three of Gardner’s 96 career home runs have come after the age of 29. In that same period, Gardner’s batting average is six points lower than his career average.

But without the electric speed from his younger playing days, Gardner will find himself watching from the bench more days than not.

With Clint Frazier hopefully getting some major league playing time, the 24-year-old has played just 54 games in two seasons.

A former top prospect with the Cleveland Indians, Frazier’s aggressive playing style has intrigued all who’ve watched him. The problem is he’s spent more time in the minors than anywhere else.

The Yankees’ crowded outfield hasn’t allowed for Frazier to gain significant MLB experience, but with Gardner taking fewer reps at the plate, perhaps Frazier could squeeze in. However, those extra outfield at-bats could also go to the still rehabbing Jacoby Ellsbury

Concerns for the upcoming season

Jacoby Ellsbury is hurt yet again, and won’t report to Spring Training until at least March. Coming off hip surgery which left the veteran outfielder unable to play all of last season, Ellsbury has a lot to live up to that almost certainly will not.

The 35-year-old is the third highest paid player on the Yankees — $21 million next season but has yet to earn that salary. He’s hit .264 BA with 39 home runs in four seasons with the Yanks, five if you count 2018.

If the Yankees plan to play Ellsbury, he’ll be eating away game time from the much younger Frazier, but if he sits on the bench, he’ll be eating away at the Yankees payroll.

The alternative is to trade Ellsbury, which isn’t an easy task, considering his full no-trade clause, but I do expect a trade to happen eventually. The return will always be in question but the Yanks will go through some extreme measures as to rid themselves of the unwanted weight should Ellsbury ever be healthy enough to leave the injured list.

The other main area of concern for the Yankees is Greg Bird, who could also be seen as dead weight.

Is it time to give up on Bird or can finally turn it around? Bird’s still young, only 26; and he’s had so much praise as a blooming Bomber.

Bird lit up the minors throughout his professional career, then followed it up with a solid first showing in the majors. Three years later and Bird’s hit under .200 two seasons in a row, but in limited game time.

Perhaps all Bird needs are some consecutive plate appearances. But the Yankees might not be the perfect place for that. One of the hardest teams to play for, especially when playing bad could produce a harsh environment to perform in.

Plus Bird is now battling 2018 September hero, Luke Voit.

Voit hit well last season for the Yankees in his short stint; 39 G, 14 HR and a .333 BA. But it that enough?

The Spring Training position battle should be a good one. Although Bird does have age on his side, Voit has a much better recent form; plus Bird’s injury-ridden career.

Come Opening Day; I expect the Yankees to have not made a sound decision for one or the other, but instead utilize both.

Voit, right-handed, and Bird, left-handed, should split many games due to the handedness of the opposing starting pitcher; even though Voit hits well against both LHP and RHP.

However, as the season goes on things can change. If one of these two leapfrogs past the other in terms of production, expect that player to get traded to another team.

The infield

Besides first base, the Yankees are at least satisfactory all around the infield.

Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andújar are both a lock for the Yankees’ present and future. Free-swinging hitters who, although they have minimal experience, proved to have big league stuff already.

The question with these two is not if they can hit; but can they continually do so? Currently unknown, this pair of infielders look as good as any.

Andújar does have a hard time on the defensive part of his game. Last season, Andújar’s -25 DRS proved just that. But the third baseman is young and looking to adapt.

I expect Andújar to improve on his defense this season while repeating similar offensive numbers (2018: 27 HR, 92RBI, .297/.328/.527).

Torres wasn’t quite as good a hitter as Andújar last season, but that’s a high comparison. The 22-year-old middle infielder hit 24 HR while batting .271 in but racked up the strikeouts — 122 K’s while only walking only 42 times.

Hopefully, Torres can get his strikeout rate down. That alone would vastly improve Torres as a hitter.

After signing both SS Troy Tulowitzki and 2B D.J. LeMahieu to replace the injured Didi Gregorius, the Yankees also made playing time a question for many guys accustomed to playing almost every day.

LeMahieu is a solid hitter — .298 career, who’ll add a contact hitting balance to the Yanks’ power heavy lineup.

But game time is not a guarantee for the former Colorado Rockies’ second baseman. He’ll likely be shifted around the infield as a super utility player.

LeMahieu hits well against both LHP and RHP –.313 and .292, respectively, which should allow him to find a lineup spot more games than not.

And with Andújar hitting almost 40 points higher against RHP over LHP and Torres hitting over 20 points higher for the same pattern, LeMahieu should see plenty of left-handed at-bats.

Tulo, coincidentally, also hits better against lefties over righties — over 20 points better. That could be the Yanks’ plan, of course with some day-to-day adjustments. Tulo also presents a very low risk, just $555k for this season. Talk about a team friendly contract.

Any and all success out of Tulo is basically an added bonus to the Yankees. If any injuries were to pop up, the Yanks won’t have to make many moves to stay competitive.

Catchers

Although not quite a position battle, Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine will both be giving it their all this season.

Sanchez, coming off the worst season of his young career, while Romine the best. Plus, Romine’s defense is superior to Sanchez’s, by a sizeable amount.

But Sanchez is a good hitter, maybe the best hitting catcher in the MLB when healthy. Last season was rough but he should bounce back.

He still hit 18 home runs in just 89 games, while improving his walk percentage by 5%. But the former All-Star catcher wasn’t hitting the same as the two seasons prior.

Line drive percent dropped 7% from 2017 to 2018 — fly ball percent jumped 6% and infield fly ball percent jumped 9%.

If Sanchez can get back on track, the Yanks are sure for a good season, regardless of the rest of the team. With a healthy, productive Sanchez, the Yankees have a clear advantage over all other powerhouse clubs.

Over the last three seasons, only three catchers have had a total WAR above Sanchez; J.T. Realmuto, who previously played for the Miami Marlins, Buster Posey of the San Francisco Giants and Yasmani Grandal, formerly of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Of those teams that those three other catchers played for, only the Dodgers played above .500 all three years; the Giants were above .500 once (2016) and Marlins, zero.

This shows that just due to positioning, Gary Sanchez’s success will be even more valuable to the Yankees in having an edge over the competition.

Romine hit well for himself last season and earned himself some extra starts in 2019.

His exceptional defensive capabilities — six runs saved behind the plate last season, in addition to his “hot” bat pushed Sanchez to the bench from time and again.

Contrary to his batting average last season, .198, Sanchez’s career batting average is still .255, which is not only higher than Romine’s, but it’s also higher than Romine has ever hit in a single season — by 11 points.

Bottom line, Sanchez’s bat is worth way more than Romine’s, even with the defensive handicap. A healthy Sanchez should see a good majority of the at-bats behind the plate in ’19.

Starting pitchers

The rotation looks strong, not great, but respectable. Led by their ace, Luis Severino, the Yankees staff boasts the likes of James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, C.C. Sabathia and J.A. Happ.

The soon to be 25-year-old Luis Severino is coming off a good season in which he posted a 3.39 ERA, with 220 K’s in 191.1 IP.

And although many people may feel 2018 was rough for Sevy, simply because of his lackluster second half, please, realize just how good his first half was for his stats to balance out.

• First Half: 2.31 ERA, 1.005 WHIP, .209 BAA
• Second Half: 5.57 ERA, 1.429 WHIP, .291 BAA

The weakness of the Yankee staff is that all members will likely perform good but not great. Except for Severino, the remaining four starters are all at least 30 years of age.

Of course, that doesn’t mean James Paxton can’t come out this season throwing missiles. But besides Severino, there’s no other guy that stands out as an ace type.

Paxton should have a solid season, though. A solid left hander that consistently throws under a 4.00 ERA each season — watch for his curve and cutter, both of which generate swings near 50 percent of the time while sporting a BAA under .200.

Masahiro Tanaka, like Paxton, is a solid veteran pitcher with some nasty stuff. Batters hit .239 against Tanaka during his career, but just .187 against his splitter. If healthy, Tanaka should help propel the Yanks into the postseason.

The end of the rotation, C.C. Sabathia and J.A. Happ, add to that veteran staff vibe the Yanks are currently going for. Both are big left-handed arms that have each won a World Series. But it’s been a while since either of these two have been on a team this good.

However, their level of experience should be helpful come playoff time. I’d be content with ERAs under 4.00 in around 140-150 IP, each.

The bullpen

What’s there to say about the Yankees bullpen that hasn’t been already said? It could be one of the best in history.

Led by closer Aroldis Chapman, the Yankees ‘pen is feared by hitters across the league. And rightly so. Chapman, as we all know, throws hard, harder than most pitchers. Toss in a good slider that tops out in the high 80s and you’ve got yourself a great closer.

However, Chapman’s no spring chicken. He’ll turn 31 before the month ends and while I have no doubt of his success this season or the next, some time shortly, his velocity won’t be the same.

Set-up to Chapman is Brooklyn native Dellin Betances. Another hard thrower, Betances, like Chapman, primarily relies on two pitches — a fastball and a breaking pitch.

In Betances’ case, the breaking pitch is his curve. A .112 BAA and 56% of balls in play resulting in ground balls is extremely efficient for any pitch. Betances has also struck out at least 100 batters in each of the last five seasons.

He’s a strikeout machine but he’s not alone.

In 2018, Adam Ottavino struck out 112 batters — his first season of 100+ strikeouts. A nice addition to the bullpen this offseason, he’s already 33, and won’t be getting much better.

On the other hand, Ottavino has shown his ability to adapt, changing his pitch usage over his career until finally reaching that ultra impressive season.

The end of the ‘pen is filled with quality relief arms; Zack Britton and Chad Green, plus some addition of whoever the Yanks decide to round the relief corp with.

Britton was once an elite closer but has fallen a few pegs. Nonetheless, he’s still an above average relief pitcher. A career 3.21 ERA over eight MLB seasons is impressive, especially for Britton who earns most of his outs through batted balls.

And lastly, there’s Green, who’s reached above or near 100 strikeouts in each of the last two seasons. His strikeout to walk rate ranked fifth best of all MLB qualified relievers last season, at 6.27, which allows Green to keep his WHIP usually near 1.00.

Overview

The Yankees have a strong, postseason-bound team, that could win a championship; but I’m not prepared to guarantee one.

A lineup stocked with power hitters, which has already broken the single-season team home run record, they could very well do it again — and should manage to hit their way near 100 wins.

But with a less than spectacular rotation, featuring five starters whose career ERAs are above 3.40, a postseason run might be more difficult.

However, this rotation will be able to make it work. With as good a hitting team as the Yankees are, their slightly lacking rotation shouldn’t be too much of a burden — especially with the lights out bullpen.

Many decisions will have to be made this season, from the position battle at first base to which bench player deserves a shot and when is the right time to play them.

Greg Bird vs. Luke Voit should be interesting. Both have shown their hitting abilities in some way or another, but haven’t quite proved to be solid MLB players as of yet.

The rotation of players in both the crowded infield and outfield should also be fun to watch. Miguel Andújar, Gleyber Torres, D.J. LeMahieu and Troy Tulowitzki will all be fighting for playing time; even more so when Didi Gregorius returns from injury later in the season.

In the outfield, Jacoby Ellsbury, Clint Frazier, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton will be vying for the three outfield spots, plus the DH role.

Trades are also bound to happen, but nonetheless, a pretty exciting season is in store for Yankees fans; so long as no more severe injuries arise; knock on wood.