Yankees trade for James Paxton comes with positives and negatives

When James Paxton is healthy, he’s a frontline starter. However, only once in six seasons has he reached 160 innings, and even then he went on the DL twice. So did the Yankees do the right thing trading their No. 1 prospect?

Should James Paxton perform for the Yankees the way he did in Seattle in 2018, he’ll be a significant boon to the Yanks’ chances of advancing to the postseason and beyond.

The positives for acquiring the “Big Maple” are plentiful. Entering his age-30 season, Paxton has only tossed 582.1 career innings. For comparison’s sake, at the same age, C.C. Sabathia had already thrown 2,125 innings.

Despite having spent extensive time on the disabled list during his first six big league seasons, Paxton’s arm could still be considered “fresh.” The career-high 28 games he started in 2018 were highlighted by a 1.098 WHIP, 11.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, two complete games and a May no-hitter. His 95.9-mph four-seam fastball and 14.3 swinging-strike rate are also trending upwards.

The Yankees are betting on Paxton’s continued development as a staff ace — one that no longer suffers from ailments of the past such as a severe pectoral strain, finger tendon strain, lat strain, forearm tightness, shoulder and back inflammation — and repeated fingernail issues.

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Paxton’s six trips to the DL in five seasons are Ellsbury-like — which is a bit scary considering the Yanks surrendered Justus Sheffield, their top prospect — and 12th in all of baseball, according to Keith Law.

Now I’ve read the reports, that many within baseball circles were concerned about Sheffield’s ceiling — how he projects to be nothing more than a No. 3 starter because of a high walk rate and diminutive stature.

But we’re still talking about the best prospect the organization had to offer. To me, trading Sheffield for a top of the rotation arm projected to make $9.1 million in arbitration makes total sense if general manager Brian Cashman continues to add via free agency. Paxton won’t become a free agent until after the 2020 season.

For instance, if the Yanks were to sign another starter such as Patrick Corbin or Dallas Keuchel, a reliever like Zach Britton or Andrew Miller, and a comparable replacement for Didi Gregorius such as Brian Dozier or Daniel Murphy, then the Paxton for prospects deal really begins to shine.

Naturally, reeling in a big fish like Manny Machado or Bryce Harper would be an enormous coup, to go along with filling the needs of the rotation — but we won’t know Cashman’s genuine interest in those high priced luxury items until the Winter Meetings.

I genuinely believe that Cashman acquiring Paxton now, as opposed to waiting until Dec. 9 in Las Vegas was two-fold. For one, reports of the Astros having a genuine interest in Paxton were a concern. After missing out on Gerrit Cole last season, Cash wasn’t ready to lose another top arm to Houston.

And two, the Mariners’ asking price would have likely increased from Sheffield, right-hander Erik Swanson and outfielder Dom Thompson-Williams, once potential nine-figure offers were sent to Corbin and company.

Paxton, the newest Yankee, sounded pumped for his opportunity to pitch in New York — telling ESPN:

"“I couldn’t be more excited about it,” Paxton said Monday. “It’s going to be a fantastic opportunity in New York, always expecting to win, the way I do. I’m looking forward to being a part of a fantastic team.”"

Now Paxton will just need to prove he’s ready for the expectations and pressure that comes with pitching under the bright lights of the Bronx. And to do that, he’ll have to complete his first major league season without a DL stint. It also wouldn’t hurt if he can cut down on the 3.76 ERA and 23 home runs allowed last season.